The European Union has distanced itself from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s planned visit to Georgia, describing it as a purely national undertaking rather than a mission representing the EU. This position was clarified by an unnamed European diplomat speaking to Politico.
According to the diplomat, Orbán’s upcoming journey to Georgia should be viewed solely as “another solo endeavour by Orbán, travelling in a national capacity.” The diplomat emphasised that while Orbán currently holds the EU Council presidency, his visit does not represent any official EU stance or endorsement. If Orbán were to suggest otherwise, “it would be an act of self-aggrandisement and a brazen misrepresentation,” the diplomat added.
The Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit, scheduled for Monday, has stirred attention given recent developments in Georgian politics. Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, declared victory in the recent elections, despite allegations of irregularities. The pro-European opposition and international observers have voiced concerns over electoral malpractice, citing voter intimidation and pressure. The opposition has called for protests, asserting that Georgian Dream “stole” the election results.
Zoltán Kovács, spokesperson for the Hungarian government, defended the visit, describing it as an “official trip” organised upon the request of the Georgian authorities. Orbán will be accompanied by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, Minister of Economic Development Márton Nagy, and Finance Minister Mihály Varga.
The visit follows a tense electoral outcome in Georgia, with both Georgian Dream and pro-European opposition factions claiming victory. International observers and opposition parties criticised the electoral process, highlighting reports of voter coercion and irregularities. Early on Sunday, opposition parties publicly rejected the election results and called for protests against Georgian Dream, which they accuse of electoral fraud.
Allegations of Electoral Manipulation
The accusations surrounding these elections revolve around claims of substantial irregularities, as articulated by both domestic and international monitoring bodies. Observers noted instances of duplicate ballots, manipulation of voter verification systems, and marked ballots favouring the ruling party even before polling began.
The Gorby polling agency, linked to the Georgian Dream Party, reported a comfortable lead for the ruling party immediately after voting concluded. However, independent polls and two other local polling agencies indicated that Georgian Dream’s lead was narrower, with estimates placing their support at 40-42%, below the threshold required for a parliamentary majority.
The credibility of the elections is further undermined by statements from Western observers. The ENEMO mission and the OSCE/ODIHR team expressed serious concerns, highlighting voter intimidation and coercion tactics.
Diverging International Responses
Despite evidence pointing to electoral malpractices, international responses have varied. Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minister, promptly congratulated Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and the Georgian Dream Party on their victory, even before official tallies were released.
Congratulations to Prime Minister @PM_Kobakhidze and the Georgian Dream party on their overwhelming victory at the parliamentary elections today. The people of #Georgia know what is best for their country, and made their voice heard today!
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) October 26, 2024
Orbán’s gesture highlights the fracturing within the EU regarding foreign policy consensus, with his stance potentially obstructing a unified EU response. The EU’s approach, typically reliant on consensus, requires all member states to agree on any action that would potentially delegitimise the election. Thus, Orbán’s endorsement could preclude a robust EU-led condemnation of the election’s integrity.
Meanwhile, statements from EU officials, including European Council President Charles Michel and High Representative Josep Borrell, called on Georgia’s election authorities to investigate the irregularities.
Following the parliamentary elections in Georgia, I intend to put Georgia on the agenda of the informal #EUCO in Budapest.
We note the OSCE/ODIHR preliminary assessment and call on the Central Election Commission and other relevant authorities to fulfil their duty to swiftly,…
— Charles Michel (@CharlesMichel) October 27, 2024
However, these statements fell short of outright condemnation, instead suggesting a cautious, wait-and-see approach, possibly pending the final OSCE/ODIHR report, which may not be released for several months. This approach indicates a reluctance within the EU to take immediate action, despite the severity of the alleged electoral violations and Georgia’s status as a candidate for EU membership.
Opposition Strategies and the Prospect of Political Stalemate
Georgia’s opposition has adopted a strategy reminiscent of the 2020 elections when opposition parties boycotted parliamentary seats to protest alleged irregularities. This boycott rendered the Georgian parliament inoperative until an EU-brokered agreement was reached, allowing some opposition representation.
However, the agreement dissolved when the ruling party reneged on promised reforms. Today’s refusal by opposition members to accept their seats could similarly thwart the functioning of parliament, potentially forcing early elections.
In response, Georgian Dream has suggested it may circumvent the parliamentary boycott by reassigning opposition seats to government-aligned candidates.
Ivanishvili Reaffirms Promise to Ban Opposition Days Before Georgia’s Elections
Although contentious, this manoeuvre would enable parliament to function without opposition participation. If enacted, this move risks deepening Georgia’s political instability and eroding its international credibility, especially as the EU grows more reluctant to pursue conciliatory talks with the Georgian government.
Western Hesitation and the Path Forward
For the EU, Georgia’s candidacy for membership complicates its approach to the ongoing crisis. While Western governments are reluctant to alienate a potential future EU member, hesitation to intervene could embolden Georgian Dream and signal a tacit tolerance for undemocratic practices.
The EU has historically balanced its criticisms, often avoiding direct confrontations that could destabilise candidate states; yet, continued inaction may erode its credibility in promoting democratic standards within the bloc and among potential members.
The severity of the electoral irregularities, compounded by Georgia’s strategic significance in the Caucasus region, places EU leaders in a difficult position.
Many within the bloc, especially newer member states like Lithuania, have voiced their dissatisfaction with the election’s conduct, hinting at potential unilateral action should consensus prove unattainable. President Gitanas Nausėda of Lithuania questioned the election’s legitimacy, exemplifying a faction within the EU ready to confront Tbilisi’s democratic backsliding.
The Importance of Domestic Support for Western Action
The Western response may ultimately hinge on the scale and intensity of protests within Georgia. Street demonstrations, sustained by a cross-party coalition, have historically been crucial in prompting international support for democratic movements. The coming weeks will likely determine whether Georgian opposition forces can generate sufficient pressure domestically to elicit a stronger international response.
As protests unfold in Tbilisi and elsewhere, the EU, alongside other Western allies, faces a critical test of its commitment to democratic principles. Should the Georgian populace decisively reject the election outcome, as evidenced by mass protests, Western leaders may find it politically untenable to endorse the Georgian Dream administration.
For now, however, the international response remains tentative, with Georgian Dream benefiting from the fragmented stance within the EU and a distracted US. The unfolding protests could either catalyse a more robust Western reaction or allow Georgian Dream to consolidate its hold amid a divided opposition and a cautious international community.
Georgia’s President Denounces Election Results, Calls for Public Protest