Tbilisi Welcomes Dialogue as Russia Rules Out Troop Withdrawal from Abkhazia and South Ossetia

On 1st October 2024, reports emerged of growing discussions between Georgia and Russia surrounding the possibility of reconciliation, following comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

However, the dialogue has stirred significant controversy, particularly regarding the continued presence of Russian troops in the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which remain occupied by Russia since the 2008 war.

Kakha Kaladze, the influential Mayor of Tbilisi and a senior figure within the ruling Georgian Dream party, welcomed the possibility of reconciliation with Russia. His remarks followed Lavrov’s statement that Moscow would be willing to support dialogue between Georgia and the de facto authorities of the occupied regions.

However, Lavrov made it clear that such talks would not involve the withdrawal of Russian troops, a stance reaffirmed by other Russian officials.

Lavrov’s Offer and Georgia’s Response

Lavrov’s comments came at the end of the previous week, during which he remarked on Georgia’s “genuine assessment of the past” and indicated Russia’s readiness to assist in fostering dialogue. He suggested that the process of reconciliation would need to involve direct discussions between Georgia and the leadership of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, territories that Russia formally recognises as independent states but are widely viewed by the international community as part of Georgia.

“They have said they want historical reconciliation,” Lavrov stated, suggesting that the form and shape of this reconciliation would be for the involved parties—Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia—to determine. Lavrov added that Russia would support efforts to reach agreements on non-aggression and peaceful cooperation.

Kaladze, in response, described Lavrov’s remarks as “positive.” The Tbilisi mayor further acknowledged the mistakes made in the past, hinting that the Georgian government could have handled the situation differently. However, his comments appeared to deflect blame for the Russian occupation onto the previous administration led by Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia and leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM).

“We should not shy away from discussing the mistakes made many years ago,” Kaladze said, pointing fingers at the opposition. He criticised the UNM for creating a “virtual world of evil,” which he claimed led to the 2008 conflict and the subsequent Russian military presence in Georgia’s breakaway regions.

Russian Stance on Military Presence

Following Kaladze’s comments, Russian Duma member Konstantin Zatulin clarified Moscow’s position regarding its military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Zatulin, a senior official within the Duma’s Committee for CIS Affairs, emphasised that Russia had no intention of withdrawing its forces from the occupied territories. He referenced existing security agreements between Russia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, which solidify Russia’s military foothold in the region.

“Does this mean the withdrawal of Russian troops? We have security cooperation agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. No one is discussing this,” Zatulin said.

He noted that Lavrov’s comments did not imply any intention to return South Ossetia or Abkhazia to Georgia. Instead, Zatulin framed the situation as an opportunity for the regions to establish economic ties with Georgia, which he viewed as a “positive” development.

Lavrov’s remarks, according to Zatulin, should be understood as a call to recognise the current political reality rather than a step toward restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity. “This question has long been settled,” Zatulin added, reaffirming Russia’s stance that the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a closed matter from Moscow’s perspective.

Domestic Reactions in Georgia

Kaladze’s positive response to Lavrov’s remarks has not been without criticism at home. The opposition has fiercely condemned the government’s approach, accusing the Georgian Dream leadership of betraying national interests by even entertaining the possibility of dialogue with the occupying force. Many in the opposition argue that Russia’s unwillingness to withdraw troops or acknowledge Georgia’s territorial claims undermines any potential for genuine reconciliation.

The National Movement, in particular, has been vocal in its opposition, with some of its members labelling Kaladze’s stance as treasonous. They argue that any talks with Moscow or its proxies, while Russian troops remain stationed in Georgian territories, represent a capitulation to Russian pressure rather than a path toward peace.

Despite these domestic tensions, the ruling party has signalled its intention to pursue constitutional reforms aimed at peaceful reunification with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Bidzina Ivanishvili, the leader of Georgian Dream, has previously indicated that the party would seek to apologise for the events of the 2008 war and hold the previous administration accountable for its role in the conflict. In mid-September, Ivanishvili outlined plans to potentially amend the constitution to facilitate the peaceful reintegration of the breakaway regions, though the specifics of such reforms remain unclear.

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