U.S. Adopts Revised Nuclear Posture to Counter China, Russia, and North Korea

In a move marking a significant shift in U.S. defence policy, President Joe Biden has approved a new nuclear strategy aimed at addressing potential simultaneous threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. This decision comes as China rapidly expands its nuclear arsenal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten the use of nuclear weapons in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The revised policy, referred to as the Nuclear Employment Guidance, was quietly approved by Biden in March 2024. While the precise details remain classified, the administration maintains that the strategy is not a direct response to any one nation or threat. According to White House spokesperson Sean Savett, the strategy “is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat.”

The change in strategy, reported by The New York Times, reflects growing concerns in Washington over China’s accelerating nuclear build-up. U.S. intelligence estimates predict that China’s nuclear stockpile could expand from its current size of over 500 warheads to as many as 1,000 by 2030. Such developments would place China’s arsenal in closer parity with those of the U.S. and Russia, which have dominated the nuclear landscape for decades.

However, the situation is more complex than a simple U.S.-China rivalry. The broader context includes a deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and Russia, fuelled by the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Putin has repeatedly raised the spectre of nuclear strikes. North Korea also remains a wildcard, with its own nuclear ambitions posing a persistent challenge to global security. The revised U.S. nuclear strategy now appears to be designed to counter threats from all three nations simultaneously.

Broader Strategic Shifts

Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, downplayed suggestions that the U.S. was shifting its nuclear focus solely toward China. He noted that Russia, with its vast arsenal of approximately 4,000 nuclear warheads, remains the primary driver of U.S. nuclear strategy. “While China’s arsenal is growing,” Kimball said, “Russia’s nuclear capabilities still far outstrip those of any other nation.”

The current shift in U.S. policy, while significant, seems to align with longstanding strategic concerns that were outlined in the Biden administration’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. That document stressed the need for modernisation of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in the face of emerging threats from both Russia and China. The newly approved Nuclear Employment Guidance further underlines Washington’s belief that both countries are unlikely to alter their nuclear postures anytime soon.

In line with this view, Pranay Vaddi, a senior director at the National Security Council, hinted earlier this year at a broader U.S. strategy to expand its nuclear arsenal if Russia and China continue their aggressive strategies. Vaddi indicated that absent any changes from these nations, the U.S. would shift from modernisation efforts to outright expansion of its nuclear capabilities.

“The need to deter Russia, China, and North Korea simultaneously” was now a priority, Vaddi said, signalling a major policy change.

China’s Response

The announcement has not gone unnoticed internationally. In response, China expressed serious concern over the U.S.’s strategic plans. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the U.S. of deliberately exaggerating the so-called “China nuclear threat narrative,” using it as a pretext to seek a strategic advantage in the Asia-Pacific region.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, reiterated the Chinese government’s stance that the U.S. is using the threat narrative to justify its own nuclear expansion. “The facts have fully proved that the United States has constantly stirred up the so-called China nuclear threat theory in recent years,” said Mao during a press briefing. While China has indeed been expanding its nuclear capabilities, the Chinese government has consistently portrayed its nuclear programme as defensive in nature and has criticised U.S. actions as destabilising.

The broader geopolitical situation has also raised concerns about the future of arms control agreements. The New Start treaty, the last major nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, is set to expire in early 2026 with no replacement in sight.

With China and Russia increasingly aligned on political and economic fronts, the prospect of any meaningful arms control progress seems bleak. The expiration of New Start, without a successor agreement, could remove key limitations on intercontinental-range nuclear weapons and further escalate global tensions.

Adding to this complexity, China and Russia have engaged in increasingly bold military collaborations. Last month, Chinese and Russian bombers conducted joint patrols near Alaska and carried out live-fire exercises in the South China Sea. These actions underscore the growing strategic partnership between the two powers, which poses new challenges to U.S. interests in both the Asia-Pacific and Europe.

Strategic Implications

Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategist at MIT and former Pentagon official, stated that the revised U.S. nuclear strategy recognises the reality of a more dangerous and multipolar nuclear world. “It is our responsibility to see the world as it is, not as we hoped or wished it would be,” Narang remarked. Reflecting on the state of global nuclear affairs, Narang warned that the post-Cold War period of reduced nuclear tensions might soon be viewed as a fleeting intermission.

As tensions continue to rise, the Biden administration appears determined to bolster the U.S. nuclear posture in anticipation of a more complex and perilous global security environment. Though the new policy may be seen as a necessary adjustment to changing global threats, it is also likely to fuel further arms races and deepen existing geopolitical rivalries.

Image source: asia.nikkei.com

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