During his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the Chinese-Russian alliance, highlighting its destructive nature in the context of the ongoing war with Russia.
Despite this criticism, Zelensky’s remarks received little attention from Beijing or Brasilia, both of which are preparing an alternative diplomatic platform aimed at ending the war, diverging significantly from Ukraine’s vision of a just peace.
China and Brazil’s efforts to create an alternative platform—referred to as the “Friends of Peace”—are seen as a direct response to Ukraine’s Peace Summit initiatives. This emerging alliance seeks to bring together countries from the Global South and post-Soviet space, offering a peace plan that effectively freezes the conflict along the current front lines. Notably, this plan lacks substantial security guarantees for Ukraine and does not address the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, even in the long term.
China’s peace proposal was initially introduced ahead of the first Ukraine Peace Summit held in Switzerland. Special envoys from Beijing embarked on a diplomatic tour of several Global South nations to rally support for the Chinese plan. In subsequent talks, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Brazil’s chief presidential advisor, Celso Amorim, agreed to formalise the proposal as a bilateral Chinese-Brazilian initiative.
China used the platform of the UN General Assembly to expand its influence by inviting a number of nations, including members of NATO such as Turkey and Hungary, to participate in discussions. Hungary, a European Union member, and Turkey, a key NATO ally, are seen as critical players due to their more nuanced positions on the war and their economic and political ties with China.
Western Concerns Over China’s Peace Plan
The growing prominence of China’s diplomatic efforts has raised concerns across the West. The United States and its European allies view the Chinese initiative with increasing scepticism. While the Chinese plan ostensibly promotes neutrality and seeks a ceasefire, critics argue it could lead to a frozen conflict, effectively locking in Russian territorial gains without addressing the underlying issues of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The West fears that China’s involvement may encourage other nations to abandon the concept of a just peace, which would involve the restoration of Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and the return of Crimea and other annexed territories.
Instead, China’s proposal seems to aim for a more pragmatic approach, one that prioritises the cessation of hostilities without requiring Russia to make significant concessions.
Ukraine’s Diplomatic Strategy
Despite Ukraine’s harsh criticism of China’s approach, Kyiv continues to engage diplomatically with Beijing. Ukrainian officials, including Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha and Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, have met with their Chinese counterparts, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi. By maintaining dialogue, Ukraine hopes to at least keep China at the diplomatic table and ensure its voice is heard.
However, President Zelensky has emphasised that Ukraine’s ultimate goal remains the preparation for a second Peace Summit. The first summit, which took place without the presence of Russian officials, was an important step for Ukraine in securing international support. The second summit, originally planned with the expectation of Russian participation, now appears uncertain, as Moscow has consistently refused to engage in any peace process that involves Ukraine’s terms.
The current situation presents a diplomatic dilemma for Ukraine. While Zelensky continues to push for Western-backed peace summits, it is becoming clear that Russia will not participate. Moreover, the longer the war continues, the more attractive China’s peace plan may become to other nations looking for a resolution, even if it is one that does not fully align with Ukraine’s interests.
China’s Diplomatic Manoeuvring
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has carefully cultivated an image of neutrality, meeting not only with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov but also with Ukrainian diplomats. This balancing act allows China to project itself as a potential mediator, while continuing its covert support of Russia.
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in contrast, has firmly refused any engagement with Lavrov, maintaining the West’s unwavering stance in support of Ukraine.
This contrast in diplomatic approaches highlights the question of who is better positioned to resolve the war: the United States and its allies, who stand firmly behind Ukraine, or China, which, while publicly claiming neutrality, has covertly aided Russia and seeks to position itself as the broker of peace.
Looking Forward: Two Competing Diplomatic Tracks
As the war continues with no end in sight, two diplomatic tracks are emerging. On one side, Ukraine is determined to pursue the Western-supported Peace Summit framework, despite Russia’s refusal to participate. On the other, China and Brazil’s “Friends of Peace” platform offers a different path, one that would involve freezing the conflict along the current front lines.
This divergence presents Ukraine with difficult choices. Should the war continue indefinitely, Ukraine might face growing pressure from other nations to consider a ceasefire that would essentially validate Russia’s territorial gains. In such a scenario, Ukraine’s alignment with the West could come into question, especially if Kyiv wishes to avoid further escalation and pursue peaceful coexistence with its powerful neighbour.
In the longer term, China’s goal may be to increase its influence in Ukraine, much as it has done in Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko maintains a precarious balance between Russian control and Chinese protection. A similar arrangement for Ukraine would see it drift away from the West, becoming more of a geopolitical buffer state under China’s indirect influence.
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