In the world of modern politics, power is rarely straightforward, and the intricate machinations behind major decisions are often obscured from public view.
The current administration, under President Joe Biden, has seen considerable conjecture about who might actually be pulling the strings.
As President Biden’s health and mental acuity have become topics of public discussion, speculation abounds on whether the U.S. government is truly being run from the Oval Office—or if a “shadow administration” is subtly guiding policy decisions and the nation’s trajectory.
In the lead-up to the 2024 Presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris now the Democratic candidate, the question of continuity for this alleged power structure has never been more relevant. Here, we explore who might comprise this influential group and consider whether they’ll continue to wield power if Harris ascends to the presidency. We ask, “Who Governs?”
The “Cabal” Concept: Origins and Context
The notion of a “cabal” behind the throne isn’t a new one, but the term has taken on a life of its own in recent years. Political insiders, former officials, and media commentators alike have observed the apparent reticence of Vice President Kamala Harris in taking on a public-facing leadership role since her generally unremarkable tenure began.
Theories about a behind-the-scenes team gained traction when Harris was conspicuously absent from certain high-profile events or critical policy announcements. This led to speculation that there might be an organised group guiding major decisions on issues ranging from international diplomacy to domestic reform initiatives.
If such a group exists, its makeup is likely a combination of senior government officials, powerful donors, influential policy advisors, and members of the intelligence community. Let’s consider some key players and why they might hold such sway over the executive branch’s actions.
Antony J. Blinken: Architect of Foreign Policy?
Antony J. Blinken
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has been a prominent and highly respected voice on the international stage, representing U.S. interests with a diplomatic polish that has arguably overshadowed Biden himself at times.
Given his role as America’s chief diplomat, Blinken naturally wields significant influence over U.S. foreign policy. His background and longstanding loyalty to Biden make him a natural contender in any analysis of influential figures who may be steering the administration.
Blinken’s potential influence could be particularly profound in areas of defence and international alliances.
His policies, from U.S.-China relations to navigating the complexities of NATO, reflect a worldview that aligns with the interests of traditional power blocs and defense agencies. If this alleged “cabal” does hold sway, it’s feasible that Blinken would have a substantial voice, if not the final say, on foreign policy decisions, given his extensive diplomatic experience.
Former Chief of Staff Ron Klain: The Real Manager?
Ron Klain
The former White House Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, held one of the most pivotal roles in any administration, and his close relationship with President Biden positions him as a de facto gatekeeper to the Oval Office.
Klain’s responsibilities have ranged from managing White House operations to coordinating between federal agencies, giving him an insider’s view of—and likely considerable input on—nearly every major policy decision.
A skilled political operative, Klain has long been known as a trusted advisor to the Democratic establishment and a steadfast Biden ally.
His management of Biden’s public appearances, briefing schedules, and legislative priorities suggests he could have easily acted as an intermediary between other influential individuals and the President himself.
Susan Rice: Mastermind of Domestic Policy?
Susan Rice
In her role as Domestic Policy Advisor until May 2023, Susan Rice held a powerful position from which to shape the Biden administration’s domestic agenda.
Although she left her formal position, Rice’s tenure was marked by an aggressive push on issues like racial justice, immigration reform, and economic policy—a pattern that aligns with Harris’s own progressive stance on many of these topics.
Rice’s experience in foreign policy, particularly during her time as National Security Advisor under President Obama, only enhances her strategic acumen and familiarity with the levers of power.
It is conceivable that her influence persists informally, through close connections with former colleagues and advisors still within the administration. Rice’s known alignment with the Democratic establishment also makes her an ideal bridge between progressive agendas and moderate, traditional interests.
Vice President Kamala Harris: Silent Partner or Successor?
Kamala Harris
Though Vice President Kamala Harris has kept a relatively low profile during Biden’s presidency, her recent re-emergence as the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election suggests she may now be ready to step forward.
Harris’s policy preferences align with some of the administration’s more progressive moves, and her views may be reflective of a consensus within the inner circle rather than Biden’s singular stance.
Many political analysts have wondered whether Harris’s earlier low visibility was a strategy to prevent her from being embroiled in any controversies that could harm her future candidacy.
The upcoming election will determine whether she’ll carry forward Biden’s legacy—or if she’ll bring a fresh approach backed by her own advisors. Either way, Harris is likely to have significant support from established power brokers should she take office.
The Intelligence Community and Military Influence?
The Pentagon: By Touch Of Light – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=72600649
In the age of global instability, there’s an argument to be made that America’s intelligence and defense communities have considerable influence over policy decisions, particularly those related to national security.
Advisors from the CIA, NSA, and the Pentagon are deeply integrated into the process of decision-making on sensitive issues, from cybersecurity threats to the balance of power in Asia and Eastern Europe.
Given the Biden administration’s staunch support for Ukraine and other moves that align closely with defence strategies, it wouldn’t be surprising if high-level military officials were among those advising, and possibly guiding, presidential decisions.
The intelligence community, with its unparalleled access to classified information and threat assessments, has long been a silent yet powerful entity in shaping policy.
Who Governs, and What Happens if Harris Takes Office?
If Kamala Harris succeeds Biden, either before or after the election, the question arises: would this “cabal” remain influential, or would her leadership bring about a shift?
On the one hand, Harris’s alignment with many of Biden’s current policies would suggest continuity. On the other, Harris may wish to make her own mark, appointing a new set of advisors or bringing back trusted figures from her time as a senator and Attorney General.
Given the persistent influence of figures like Blinken and Klain, it’s plausible that their counsel would remain valued, even under Harris.
She would also likely face pressure to keep certain key officials in place to maintain continuity, especially if national security concerns are at stake. However, her natural inclination to promote diverse viewpoints could lead to a slightly more progressive set of advisors than Biden’s inner circle.
An Enduring Shadow?
The notion of a “shadow administration” may sound like political fiction, but the structure of power in the United States government is inherently collaborative, with many decisions reflecting the input of a team of advisors, strategists, and officials. Should this alleged inner circle continue to play a role under a Harris administration, it could lend stability to the transition of power.
Whether Harris chooses to break from the current framework, or uphold it, will define her leadership style and signal to the world whether the United States will see a continuation of Biden’s policies or a shift in priorities. Until then, the conjecture around this “cabal” will likely persist, offering fertile ground for analysis, commentary, and debate as America considers its future leadership.
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Voters in the United States head to the polls on November 5th, 2024, for a landmark presidential election. What was initially set to be a rematch of the 2020 election between Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and Republican challenger Donald Trump took a surprising turn this July when President Biden ended his re-election campaign.
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