2024 has been a defining year for political landscapes across Europe, with elections taking place in several European Union (EU) members and neighbouring states. Amid these elections, a common thread has emerged: allegations of Russian interference.
From disinformation campaigns to suspected cyber attacks, Russia’s purported influence in Europe’s democratic processes, and at the time of writing Moldovans are alleging interference, has raised concerns about its broader objectives, especially given the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
If these allegations hold, it is essential to explore what President Vladimir Putin aims to achieve and what the implications might be for the unity within the EU.
Russian Interference Allegations: A Persistent Pattern
Allegations of Russian interference are not new. Since the mid-2010s, numerous EU countries have reported attempts by Russian operatives to influence their democratic processes.
In the 2024 election cycle, however, these allegations have grown louder and more frequent. Reports of misinformation campaigns circulating on social media, as well as targeted hacking attempts, have heightened suspicions.
Russia’s interference often manifests as social media propaganda, fake news websites, and cyber tactics aimed at disrupting election security. If these activities are substantiated, they could signify a strategic maneuver by Russia to sow division and destabilise the EU.
What Might Putin’s Objectives Be?
Putin’s motives for allegedly meddling in European elections are likely multifaceted, but they largely tie back to his broader geopolitical goals and the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia has faced severe sanctions, military challenges, and diplomatic isolation since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Maintaining the war effort is costly, both financially and politically, so Putin has a strong interest in undermining the unity and resolve of the EU, which has stood as a firm supporter of Ukraine.
- Eroding EU Support for Ukraine: One clear motive is to weaken the EU’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, both militarily and financially. If Russian interference can sway certain political outcomes, it may bring to power leaders who are less inclined to continue the current levels of aid to Ukraine. This could result in reduced EU military supplies, economic assistance, or sanctions enforcement, ultimately benefiting Russia’s military strategy.
- Promoting Nationalist and Anti-EU Sentiments: Russia has often aligned itself with European political parties and movements that favor nationalism, populism, and skepticism toward EU centralization. By amplifying the voices of these factions, Putin may hope to weaken the EU’s cohesion. A fragmented EU would be less capable of coordinating a unified response to Russia, potentially allowing it to advance its own interests more freely in Eastern Europe.
- Shaping European Public Opinion: Public opinion within EU member states plays a significant role in government policy. Disinformation campaigns are often tailored to exacerbate existing societal divides, such as those over immigration, economic inequalities, and social policies. By amplifying divisive issues and undermining trust in European institutions, Russia can cultivate an environment where citizens are more receptive to policies that favor disengagement from the EU’s collective stance on Russia.
- Shifting Energy Dependencies: Europe’s reliance on Russian energy has decreased since 2022, but Russia is keen to exploit any vulnerabilities remaining in the EU’s energy supply chain. By supporting candidates who question the EU’s current energy strategies or who seek to rekindle economic ties with Russia, Putin may aim to claw back some degree of influence in Europe’s energy market, thus weakening the EU’s stance.
The Impact on EU Unity
If Russia’s efforts to influence European elections succeed, the consequences for EU unity could be significant. A divided EU is precisely what Russia would hope to see—a Europe that is less resolute, less coordinated, and less capable of enforcing strong measures against Moscow.
The EU’s response to Russian aggression has thus far been unprecedented, with member states cooperating to impose sanctions, provide aid to Ukraine, and maintain a strategic military presence in Eastern Europe. However, if Russia manages to tilt political landscapes toward leaders or parties with pro-Russian or anti-EU leanings, this solidarity could be at risk.
- Policy Fragmentation: The EU relies on consensus for many of its key policies. If more leaders who are sympathetic to Russia or hostile to the EU are elected, it could hinder the EU’s ability to make unified decisions. This fragmentation might not only slow down decision-making processes but also cause divisions in areas critical to EU stability, such as defence, trade, and foreign policy.
- Undermined Security Commitments: A cohesive security strategy is crucial in the face of Russian aggression. However, if EU nations become increasingly divided on how to address Russian interference and aggression, collective security initiatives could weaken. This would be a major win for Russia, as it could erode NATO and EU cooperative security structures, leaving Eastern European countries more vulnerable.
- Economic and Social Instability: A less united EU could struggle to tackle the complex social and economic issues exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, such as inflation and energy shortages. Countries less supportive of sanctions or less willing to fund Ukrainian aid could prioritize short-term domestic concerns over EU goals, further fracturing the EU’s internal market and its policy responses to the ongoing crisis.
Moving Forward: Preserving European Unity
To counter potential Russian interference, the EU must prioritise cybersecurity, media literacy, and information resilience across its member states.
This involves investing in cyber defence measures, bolstering election security, and coordinating more closely on intelligence sharing. Furthermore, strengthening legal frameworks around disinformation and misinformation can empower governments to respond swiftly to foreign interference attempts.
In conclusion, while it remains to be seen how impactful Russian interference will be in the 2024 elections, the implications of a fragmented EU would be profound.
For the EU, maintaining unity is essential not only for supporting Ukraine but for safeguarding its own security, stability, and values. As Europe faces these challenges, the importance of a strong and united front against external interference is more critical than ever.
