China’s Export of Restricted High-Priority Battlefield Items to Russia, with India’s Growing Role

An extensive review of trade data conducted by the Institute for Science and International Security has highlighted China’s critical role in supplying Russia with restricted battlefield items. Between May 2022 and December 2023, Chinese companies exported over $1.5 billion worth of restricted Tier One commodities to Russian firms.

These commodities, listed under specific Harmonised System (HS) codes, include advanced Western-designed electronics necessary for Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, such as drones, missiles, and other weapons.

The restricted items, classified as Tier One, are considered the most critical goods for Russia’s war effort, as they include components that Russia cannot produce domestically and has limited access to internationally due to sanctions. The electronics exported by China consist of field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), microcontrollers, and artificial intelligence (AI) modules from Western brands like XILINX, NVIDIA, and Texas Instruments. These components are used in various Russian military platforms, including drones and anti-jamming equipment.

The Role of Western Technology in Russia’s War Machine

The trade manifests reviewed by the Institute show that Russian weapons, particularly drones such as the Shahed 136 and Lancet, depend heavily on Western electronics. For example, XILINX FPGAs are integral to the Shahed 136 drone, which has been extensively used in Ukraine. Similarly, NVIDIA Jetson AI modules power the Lancet drone, enabling it to autonomously identify and engage targets on the battlefield.

These drones are launched by the hundreds each month in Russia’s ongoing military campaign, underscoring the significant demand for Western technology to sustain production. Without access to these critical components, Russia would face severe challenges in maintaining its military capabilities.

Russian Importers: Sanctions Evaded

The analysis of trade data also reveals that Russian companies have been able to continue importing restricted goods despite international sanctions. Of the top 50 Russian importers, only 15 are sanctioned entities, with the remaining companies operating largely free from direct scrutiny. These 50 companies alone accounted for $677 million worth of imports, with Western brands representing a significant portion of the shipments.

Among the sanctioned companies, LLC SMT-AILOGIK, LLC Modern Digital Technologies, and Joint Stock Company VNIIR Progress stand out for their continued trade in restricted goods. Despite being sanctioned by the United States, these companies managed to import millions of dollars’ worth of high-priority electronics after the sanctions were imposed. For example, LLC SMT-AILOGIK, sanctioned in May 2023, continued to import over $5 million in XILINX electronics between June and October 2023. Similarly, LLC Modern Digital Technologies imported over $16 million in restricted goods, with the majority of imports occurring after the sanctions were enforced.

The data highlights the limited impact of sanctions on curtailing the flow of critical goods from China to Russia. While sanctions have been applied to several companies, the majority of Russian importers have escaped regulatory scrutiny, allowing them to continue acquiring high-priority items essential for the military.

The Effectiveness of Sanctions

The limited effectiveness of Western sanctions is apparent in the trade figures. Although 15 of the top 50 Russian importers are sanctioned, these companies accounted for only 15% of the total import value. The bulk of the trade—85%—was conducted by non-sanctioned entities. Moreover, even among sanctioned companies, many continued their operations without interruption. Of the 15 sanctioned firms, seven continued to trade after being blacklisted, importing over $35 million worth of restricted goods. Only two sanctioned companies ceased operations following the sanctions.

The data also reveals a significant spike in trade in late 2023, with imports reaching $125 million in December, the highest figure during the assessed period. There is no indication that this trade slowed in 2024, suggesting that the sanctions, while disruptive, have not been entirely successful in halting the flow of battlefield technology to Russia.

India’s Growing Role in Supplying Russia

In addition to China, India has emerged as a key supplier of critical technologies to Russia, particularly in the face of sanctions imposed by Western countries. According to European and American officials, India became the second-largest supplier of high-priority items to Russia by mid-2024, following China. Indian exports to Russia have included sensitive technologies such as microchips and machine tools, crucial for Russia’s military-industrial complex.

In April and May 2024, India’s export of sanctioned goods to Russia exceeded $60 million, a sharp increase from previous months. By July 2024, this figure rose further to $95 million, solidifying India’s position as a significant supplier of restricted technologies. Estimates suggest that Russia now receives approximately one-fifth of its critical military technologies through India.

Western governments have expressed concern over India’s role as a conduit for sanctioned goods. U.S. and European Union officials have made several diplomatic visits to India, seeking to address the flow of sensitive goods to Russia.

Image source: /isis-online.org

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