EU’s Frustration Grows as Orbán Tests Boundaries

Brussels is finding its efforts to control Budapest increasingly ineffective. During a meeting on Wednesday, Hungary’s envoy to the EU, Bálint Ódor, faced an unprecedented verbal lashing from his European counterparts regarding Hungary’s management of the EU presidency.

The intense session, which lasted over two hours, saw all nations except Slovakia expressing their discontent.

“It’s unprecedented that the presidency would be reprimanded in such a way by all the others,” noted a senior EU diplomat, who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity due to the private nature of the discussions.

Since taking over the rotating EU presidency last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has initiated self-proclaimed “peace missions” to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and Washington.

Hungary, however, appears baffled by the uproar. At a crowded press conference in Brussels on Wednesday, Hungary’s EU Minister János Bóka asserted that these discussions “were not on behalf of the EU, these were not conducted based on a mandate from the European institutions, these were not conducted in the name of the European Union or any of its institutions.”

Orbán has insisted that his initiatives align with the responsibilities of the EU presidency, noting that he has briefed the president of the European Council and other EU leaders on his visits.

Despite these assurances, EU ambassadors on Wednesday challenged Hungary’s claims, mirroring public condemnations from various leaders. The envoys raised concerns about the “timing and sequencing of the meetings, [the] use of presidency hashtags, and the reaction of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.” They accused Orbán of intentionally blurring lines, violating EUCO conclusions, and damaging EU unity.

An EU diplomat remarked that “it took nine days for the Hungarian presidency to lose any smidgen of trust they had left,” arguing that Orbán’s actions benefit Putin’s agenda and undermine EU efforts for peace.

Limited Retaliation Options

European capitals, despite their frustration, are finding it challenging to take concrete actions against Hungary’s controversial presidency.

“In reality, the options are limited,” acknowledged an EU official. Altering the order of presidencies or shortening Hungary’s term is legally complicated now that the presidency has commenced.

Former Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn suggested that the Court of Justice of the EU “would rule against” such actions, and other countries might fear setting a risky precedent.

During the meeting, no ambassadors proposed the possibility of cancelling the presidency, though the anger is significant.

Estonian MEP Riho Terras is rallying support in the European Parliament to invoke Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union against Hungary, which would suspend Hungary’s voting rights on EU decisions. However, this severe sanction has been avoided by European capitals so far.

Orbán appears to be adept at navigating the limits of EU tolerance. “He knows exactly how far he can go without risking immediate retaliation,” observed an EU official.

Potential Consequences

While eliminating Hungary’s presidency is not on the table, several EU ambassadors have suggested practical retaliations if Orbán persists in his current approach. One immediate measure could be boycotting informal ministerial meetings organised by Budapest.

At the first Hungarian Council meeting on Tuesday, only eight countries (including Hungary) sent ministers. Some ambassadors proposed boycotting the informal foreign ministers’ meeting in Budapest at the end of August.

Bóka downplayed this threat during his press conference, stating that Hungary has received no signals that other member states would avoid sending ministers to these meetings.

Nonetheless, EU diplomats cautioned that future retaliatory measures remain possible. One diplomat described Wednesday’s meeting as a “yellow card.”

Given the rapid escalation in tensions during the initial fortnight of Hungary’s presidency, further pushback from Brussels is conceivable if Orbán crosses more red lines, particularly in his interactions with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Orbán is scheduled to meet Trump in Florida this Thursday, less than a week after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. According to Bloomberg, the meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate is described as informal, with no expectation that Orbán will lay the groundwork for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

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