Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s recent diplomatic ventures highlight a bold approach in his international engagements. His self-proclaimed shuttle diplomacy has seen him visit Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing in rapid succession.
These unprecedented visits represent Orbán’s attempt to carve out a significant role on the international stage, particularly in the context of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Orbán’s visit to Kyiv marked his first since 2015. During his last visit, he engaged with then-President Petro Poroshenko. Unlike many Western leaders, Orbán did not visit Kyiv following Russia’s major invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His recent visit, therefore, was seen as a significant gesture, given his earlier abstention.
In stark contrast, Orbán has maintained a more consistent line of communication with Moscow. He was in the Russian capital just before the 2022 invasion and has since made only one unofficial visit, attending the funeral of former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev.
His recent negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin are thus viewed as unprecedented, especially for a leader whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union.
Orbán’s visit to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders further illustrates his strategic positioning. The key topic of discussion with Putin, according to Orbán, was Russia’s stance on China’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine. This plan, widely seen as favouring a freeze in the conflict without addressing security guarantees for Ukraine, aligns closely with Russia’s interests but lacks provisions for the withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territories.
The timing of Orbán’s visit to Beijing, following Xi Jinping’s European tour and his visit to Budapest, suggests a coordinated effort. The Chinese peace plan was publicly supported by Xi just before his trip to Hungary, indicating a potential pre-discussion between Orbán and Xi.
In this context Orbán’s initiation of a new parliamentary group within the European Parliament, composed of far-right political forces, is noteworthy. These parties, some of which have previously maintained ties with Russia, are now being steered towards Chinese alliances. This shift suggests that economic interests, particularly Chinese investments, are becoming a critical factor for these parties, overshadowing previous connections with Russia.
Orbán’s strategy appears to be driven by a pragmatic need to balance European, Chinese, and Russian economic influences. Hungary’s reliance on Chinese investments and Russian gas is a significant factor in maintaining his political power. By engaging with all three powers, Orbán aims to ensure Hungary’s economic stability and, consequently, his political longevity.
Despite his active diplomatic engagements, Orbán himself admits he lacks the political clout to be a peace mediator. Instead, his role seems to be more of a conduit for Chinese proposals, seeking to gather reactions from both Ukraine and Russia to the Chinese peace plan. This intermediary role reinforces Orbán’s broader strategic goals rather than a genuine commitment to peace.
An intriguing aspect of Orbán’s diplomatic manoeuvring is his recent meeting with former US President Donald Trump. Following their discussions, Orbán highlighted Trump’s stance against providing financial support to Ukraine, should he return to power. This raises questions about whether Orbán shared these views with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his Kyiv visit.
Orbán’s diplomatic tour does not end with Beijing. He is expected to visit Washington for a NATO summit, potentially seeking another meeting with Trump. This meeting could provide Orbán with an opportunity to align the views of Xi and Trump on ending the Ukraine conflict, highlighting his ambition to influence major global powers.
Viktor Orbán’s recent diplomatic activities reflect a complex strategy aimed at realigning Hungary’s international alliances. By engaging with Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and potentially Washington, Orbán seeks to balance diverse economic interests while positioning himself as a key intermediary in the Ukraine conflict. His actions underscore a broader ambition to influence European alignment towards Chinese foreign policy, marking a significant shift in Hungary’s international strategy.
Deceptive Tactics: Why Orbán Can’t Mediate Between Ukraine and Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed scepticism regarding Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s capability to act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky emphasises that only consolidated efforts from the world’s major powers can effectively compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt the war.
During a press briefing with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Zelensky was questioned about Orbán’s recent visits to Kyiv and Moscow. Orbán has described these trips as part of a “peacekeeping mission.” However, Zelensky highlighted the limitations of Orbán’s mediation role.
“There is no mediation between Russia and Ukraine,” Zelensky stated. “Only serious, powerful alliances can force Russia to stop this war. It is not about mediation; it is about capabilities.”
Zelensky outlined the prerequisites for effective mediation: a strong economy that influences Russia or a powerful military that Putin fears. He cited the United States, China, and the European Union as entities capable of fulfilling this role. These actors, due to their substantial economic and military capacities, have the potential to exert real pressure on Russia.
The Ukrainian President also expressed doubts about the sincerity of Russia’s intentions. He noted that even when Putin engages with representatives from various states, it does not necessarily indicate a genuine desire to end the war. Instead, Putin often uses such engagements to project a facade of diplomacy, which is quickly followed by aggressive actions on the ground, as witnessed in the ongoing war.
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