Tensions between India and Pakistan have intensified in the wake of a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, prompting a flurry of diplomatic activity and military preparations in both countries.
While Islamabad has warned of a potential Indian military strike within days, New Delhi has emphasised its demand that those responsible for the assault be brought to justice.
The incident, which occurred on 22 April near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, left at least 26 people dead, most of them Hindu tourists. According to Indian authorities, Islamist gunmen opened fire after segregating victims by name. The attack has triggered a major security response from India and heightened fears of renewed conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said he conveyed to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the “perpetrators, backers, and planners” of the Pahalgam attack must face justice. His statement followed telephone discussions held by Rubio with both Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. A U.S. State Department readout confirmed that Washington has urged both countries to de-escalate and cooperate in the investigation, with Rubio expressing support for India’s stance against extremism.
Pakistan, however, has denied any involvement in the attack and called for a neutral investigation. Islamabad has also accused India of heightening tensions unnecessarily. Sharif has appealed to Washington to press India to “dial down the rhetoric and act responsibly”, his office said.
The Kashmir region, claimed in full by both countries but divided in control, has long been a flashpoint. India alleges that Pakistan supports insurgents in the region, a charge Islamabad denies. While the separatist movement that erupted in 1989 has largely declined, sporadic violence and incidents like the recent attack continue to destabilise the region.
In the days following the attack, both countries have taken reciprocal measures that signal worsening relations. India has suspended a key river water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, and both nations have closed their airspace to each other’s airlines. Pakistani aviation authorities have confirmed the restriction on overflights by Indian carriers, and vice versa.
Small arms exchanges have been reported nightly along the Line of Control in Kashmir over the past week, although no casualties have yet been confirmed by Indian sources.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened a high-level meeting with security and military officials earlier this week. According to government sources, Modi has given the country’s armed forces the freedom to determine an appropriate response. The Indian Navy has since issued navigational warnings related to live-fire exercises in the Arabian Sea off the coasts of Maharashtra and Gujarat—both strategically significant areas, with Gujarat sharing a land border with Pakistan.
Islamabad has reiterated its view that Indian military action is imminent and has reportedly begun humanitarian planning in Pakistan-administered Kashmir in anticipation of a potential escalation. The head of the regional administration has also called for international mediation.
The situation has drawn responses from key international actors. The United Nations has issued a statement calling on both countries to avoid confrontation, while China has urged restraint. Beijing maintains close political and military ties with Pakistan but is also pursuing economic cooperation with India. Its long-term strategic interest in regional stability remains unclear, though a protracted conflict could alter investment flows and regional dynamics in ways that may benefit Chinese interests.
The United States, historically aligned more closely with Pakistan during the Cold War, has in recent years sought to balance its partnerships with both nations. The US administration had previously avoided direct involvement in South Asian disputes, but Rubio’s recent outreach suggests Washington now views the situation as urgent. Whether this intervention can alter the course of events remains to be seen.
Russia, meanwhile, is closely monitoring the situation. Some analysts believe that President Vladimir Putin may see an India-Pakistan conflict as an opportunity to draw international attention away from the war in Ukraine and create diplomatic space for manoeuvre. Similar assessments have been made regarding Iran, which might view the conflict as a chance to weaken Sunni Arab influence in the region and delay U.S.-led negotiations on its nuclear programme.
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India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate Following Kashmir Attack, Raising Fears of Armed Conflict
