Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik, the spokesperson for the Iranian Defence Ministry, recently issued a pointed statement, openly threatening Azerbaijan. His comments were directed at the possibility of opening the Zangezur Corridor, which would connect mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This strip of land, currently separated by Armenian territory, has been a key subject of geopolitical discussions not only between Baku and Yerevan but also involving Russia.
The corridor’s opening is a significant point of contention in the region. Russia has been adamant that the route, once established, should be under the control of its Federal Security Service (FSB), as outlined in a post-conflict agreement between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. For Moscow, securing control of this route would ensure its continued influence in the South Caucasus, a region critical to its strategic interests.
However, Moscow’s ambitions are clashing with the interests of its regional ally, Iran. Tehran, for its part, is attempting to derail any agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the Zangezur Corridor. Iran has its own strategic aspirations for the region and prefers to promote transport routes that run through its territory. This would give Tehran significant leverage over both Baku and Yerevan, making them more reliant on Iranian infrastructure rather than Russian-controlled routes.
Iran’s motivations stem from a broader geopolitical agenda. If Azerbaijan were to become dependent on Iran for logistics, Tehran could challenge Baku’s delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. This is particularly important for Azerbaijan, which in recent years has strengthened ties with Turkey and established energy partnerships with Western countries—moves perceived as vital for its sovereignty and security. The alliance with Turkey, especially, is seen as one of the key pillars of Azerbaijan’s survival in a volatile region.
Iran is also concerned about the growing military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel, particularly in light of its ongoing tensions with Tel Aviv. Tehran may see Azerbaijan’s strategic ties with Israel as a direct threat, especially as tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate. By trying to influence Azerbaijan’s logistics and foreign policy, Iran hopes to limit the country’s ability to manoeuvre between regional and global powers.
At the same time, Armenia finds itself in a precarious position. Yerevan views Iran as a potential stabilising force in the region and has sought to maintain cordial relations with Tehran. However, Iran’s international isolation due to its strained relations with Western nations, especially the United States and European countries like France, complicates Armenia’s foreign policy. As the Middle East faces increasing instability, the risk of escalation between Iran and its adversaries, particularly Israel and Western countries, could exacerbate tensions in the Caucasus.
For Azerbaijan, developing close ties with Turkey and maintaining energy partnerships with the West are crucial for its foreign policy strategy. Western countries are keen to diversify their energy sources away from Russia, and Azerbaijan’s role as an energy partner has only grown in importance as a result. In contrast, Armenia, while reliant on Iran for regional stability, is simultaneously seeking security guarantees from countries that are in conflict with Tehran, such as the United States. As Iran’s influence in the region increases, it may place greater pressure on Armenia to reduce its ties with Iran’s adversaries.
This complex regional dynamic also draws in external powers like Turkey and the United States, which are monitoring how relations between the Caucasus countries and Iran are evolving. Turkey, as Azerbaijan’s main ally, is particularly wary of any moves that could undermine Baku’s independence or strengthen Tehran’s hand in the region. Similarly, the United States, as a supporter of Armenia in its efforts to establish security ties, is concerned about the growing influence of Iran in the region and its implications for broader regional stability.
Amidst these shifting alliances, Moscow finds itself watching Iran’s moves closely. Iran’s involvement in the region has, to some extent, disrupted Russia’s plans to establish itself as the dominant player following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Moscow’s ambition to control the Zangezur Corridor and solidify its presence in the Caucasus has been challenged by Tehran’s attempts to promote alternative routes. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, is keen to avoid any miscalculations and is likely to hold other actors responsible for its setbacks in maintaining influence in the region.
The broader implications of these tensions are far-reaching. As Iran continues to issue veiled threats towards Azerbaijan and align itself with Armenia, the risk of further destabilisation in the region increases. With Tehran already embroiled in conflicts across the Middle East, any attempt to open a “second front” in the Caucasus could have serious consequences.
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