Jammu and Kashmir’s Electoral Revival: Pakistan’s Exasperation and UT’s Democratic Future, writes Sagina Walyat

Since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) of its special status, the region is now heading toward its first legislative assembly elections as a Union Territory (UT).

This election carries significant weight, both politically and symbolically, as it represents the culmination of India’s efforts to tackle separatism, establish democracy and promote peace in the region.

Following its reorganisation, J&K was bifurcated into two separate Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir, which was granted legislative assembly powers, and Ladakh, which was not.

This election, which sees participation from various regional parties and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is witnessing an unexpected surge of independent candidates as well.

A total of 219 candidates are contesting 90 assembly seats, reflecting a broad spectrum of political aspirations in the region.

This marks a departure from the past when regional parties, such as the National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), boycotted elections.

The revived political energy in J&K is indicative of a changed atmosphere, with all parties gearing up in full swing for the upcoming polls.

The Indian Home Minister, Amit Shah, in 2023 reserved 24 seats in the legislative assembly for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), while tabling the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganisation Bill, 2023, emphasising India’s long-standing claim that POK is an inalienable part of the country. This move underscores the political and territorial stakes in the region.

The Return of Electoral Energy After a Decade.

These elections are being held after a 10-year hiatus, and there is a palpable sense of renewed political engagement in the UT.

While development and governance are central to most campaign agendas, the “Pakistan factor” has inevitably come into play.

The entry of the Jamaat-e-Islami, a group previously banned for its alleged links to terrorism, and the release of Engineer Rashid, a key figure, have added complexity to the electoral dynamics.

Rashid’s release, given his vocal support for Kashmiri autonomy, signals the re-emergence of old narratives. Kanwal Singh, a policy analyst from Jammu and Kashmir, expressed “the first phase of the assembly elections in the region, which began on September 18th, saw a significant voter turnout of over 61%.

“This high participation reflects a flourishing democracy in J&K, where violence is no longer prevalent. Despite efforts by Pakistan to destabilise the region by pushing terrorists into Jammu following the abrogation, the people have shown strong enthusiasm for the elections.

“After years of instability and direct governance, voters are eager to support a future where elected representatives can address their concerns, something that was not possible under centralized rule. For India, these elections underscore its democratic values and commitment to ensuring that the people of J&K have a meaningful role in shaping their own future”

Election and Escalation.

Since the abrogation of Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir have enjoyed relative peace, with a sharp decline in violent incidents compared to previous years.

Events such as the prolonged closures of schools and markets, and stone-pelting, which used to be a regular course in Kashmir before the abrogation of article 370 have completely ceased .

However, the announcement of elections, coupled with Narendra Modi’s potential swearing-in for a third term as Prime Minister, has triggered a spike in targeted killings and militant activities in both Jammu and Kashmir.

These activities, often attributed to Pakistan-based terrorist groups, clearly reflect Islamabad’s discontent with the changing status quo in J&K.

Pakistan has consistently opposed the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the region, and its establishment is particularly perturbed by Prime Minister Modi’s strong electoral position. Since the J&K election dates were announced, there has been a noticeable uptick in cross-border infiltration attempts and terrorist attacks, underscoring Pakistan’s intent to destabilise the region.

This escalation is a clear attempt to disrupt the peace and influence the election outcome through fear and violence in locals.

Pakistan’s Strategic Calculations.

Pakistan’s interest in J&K is not merely territorial but deeply strategic. Faced with escalating internal conflicts in Balochistan, strained relations with Afghanistan, and haltedprogress on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan views Kashmir as a geopolitical lever.

Islamabad hopes that unrest in Kashmir could help regain its relevance on the global stage, particularly in its dealings with the United States, as it seeks more financial aid and relief from recently imposed sanctions.

The peace and stability achieved in J&K since 2019 works against Pakistan’s narrative of a suppressed and volatile Kashmir.

With the failure to revive the international discourse on Article 370, Pakistan has resorted to indirect means to interfere in the election process, including backing religious candidates and playing the religion card to influence voters.

Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has been actively involved in fomenting trouble not just in Kashmir but also along India’s eastern borders with Bangladesh. The Director-General of Police in J&K has confirmed that Pakistan, struggling to recruit local recruits, has resorted to deploying foreign fighters to spread terror in the region.

Regional Political Stances on Pakistan.

Within the political framework of J&K, the stance toward Pakistan remains divided. The PDP, for instance, continues to advocate for dialogue between India and Pakistan, proposing enhanced connectivity across the Line of Control (LOC)

However, India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, has lately made clear that the era of “uninterrupted dialogue” with Pakistan is over. The Indian government remains focused on development, economic growth, and making J&K terror-free.

Anti-terror operations have intensified ahead of the elections, indicating the administration’s commitment to securing the region.

Ensuring Inclusive Democracy in J&K.

India has taken substantial steps to ensure that the elections in Jammu and Kashmir are conducted peacefully and inclusively.

The region, which boasts a diverse population of Muslims, Sikhs, and Kashmiri Pandits, is set to witness its aptly inclusive elections.

A significant number of displaced Kashmiri pandits—estimated at 35,000—are eligible to cast their votes polling stations set up in Jammu, Udhampur and Delhi, marking their reintegration into the democratic process. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s frustration over its failure to control the narrative on Kashmir has been evident in protests within its so-called “Azad Jammu and Kashmir” (AJK).

Recent demonstrations saw locals demanding assimilation with India, a development that has further weakened Pakistan’s claim to the region.

The elections in J&K have the potential to pave the way for India to extend its policy from symbolic to physical possession over Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), as both the government and the people of Kashmir increasingly favour a peaceful, development-oriented future.

Additionally, The changing dynamics in Sino-India relations have introduced a new layer of complexity to Pakistan’s strategy regarding Kashmir. As China and India engage in efforts to stabilize their relationship—evident in recent border disengagements and diplomatic dialogues—Beijing is less likely to overtly support Pakistan or would act with calculated restraint in case India makes advances toward POK.

Pakistan’s Dwindling Influence and the 2024 Elections.

Pakistan’s concerns extend beyond the current assembly elections in J&K. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Jammu and Kashmir saw record-breaking voter turnout, with participation reaching up to 51%.

Should this trend continue in the assembly elections, it would deal a severe blow to Pakistan’s attempts to delegitimize the Indian government’s control over the region.

Fiscally disrupted Islamabad, infamous for conducting rigged elections, is acutely aware that a high voter turnout in J&K would further erode its credibility in the international community.

Pakistan’s agenda to disrupt the elections has been transparent, with increased infiltration attempts and support for separatist activities. Its objective is clear: to instil fear among the local population and undermine the democratic process.

However, India’s robust security apparatus has ensured that the elections will proceed peacefully, with significant precautions taken to counter cross-border terrorism.

In conclusion.

The elections in Jammu and Kashmir are more than just a local political contest—they are a litmus test for the region’s future and the broader geopolitical dynamics between India and Pakistan.

For India, these elections reaffirm its democratic principles and its commitment to ensuring that the people of J&K shall freely have a say in shaping their future.

For Pakistan, the stakes are far higher. A peaceful, successful election in J&K would further delegitimise its claim over the region and weaken its already dwindling influence on the global stage.

Pakistan, which views Kashmir as a “golden goose” for its own survival, making all efforts to disrupt the democratic process. However, with strong security measures in place and a determined electorate, Jammu and Kashmir appear ready to embrace the democratic festival, signaling a new chapter in its complex history.

Sagina Walyat, is an International Relations analyst, an Asia Global Fellow at The University of Hong Kong and a delegate of Australia-India Youth Dialogue(AIYD).

Her work has been published in publications including South China Morning Post, The Australia Today, The Wire, The outlook India and more.