War in the Middle East? It’s Everyone’s Business, Warns Chris White!

The Middle East is Ablaze. Israel is going to send forces into southern Lebanon, and the government have calculated that Iran and Iraq might join with Hezbollah up scaling the conflict to all out war.

As far as possible, life goes on as normal in Tel Aviv. Photo by Chris White.

This cannot all be officially verified but is the sum total of the many briefings to a party of visiting international journalists over five days last week.

A “retired” intelligence officer, and several “retired” generals have proven to forecast the situation exactly as it is.

Expert Dr Michael Milshtein, Head of Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies, set out in a powerful presentation : a bid to “drive Hezbollah out of the border region could mean that Israel has to face the possibility that Iran and perhaps Iraq will actively back Hezbollah”.

He declared that Israel has only a number of bad options and that dealing with the threat in the north “is the least bad option”.

Over the past week there have been significant hints regarding support from America and “other allies”.

Verification of facts is difficult in time of war but an interesting suggestion is that Israel has long been talking to the Lebanese government about a peace deal that would ensure that southern Lebanon remains demilitarised and that “Lebanon once again becomes the pleasant place it used to be”.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi, who founded and runs the top grade Alma Research and Education Centre, has a long history of interpreting political and military issues.

At her briefing she movingly described how she worries about her home on the coast near Lebanon and how she “cannot leave my daughter alone”. Hers is a familiar story expressed by so many on our International Press Visit.

The problem is, of course, Hezbollah and it’s allies, principally Iran.

To assess and interpret what is actually going on it has to be remembered that Iran is a significant factor in terms of weapons supply to Hezbollah and Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The latter implies that Israel’s current strategy is in the interests of all of Russia’s opponents. It is just possible that Israel has established that Iran will not actually get involved on the ground.

One simple fact that cannot be denied is that Israel cannot continue with Hezbollah a major threat in the north and Hamas still a real force in Gaza.

An Arab cafe in Jaffa: Photo by Chris White.

Is the country ready and capable of all out war including conflict with Iran? Perhaps it would need help which the issue back to America. Is it significant that Israel has acted on its “least bad” option at this time?

The briefings only mentioned in passing – but mention they did – that the American elections are a major factor. “Acting too close to the US election would be a mistake”, was stated in passing at several briefings.

That any conclusion from the briefings could be wrong depends on what is really going on in the Israeli High Command but it should be noted that everything at the time of writing in Tel Aviv the briefings fits.

Politicians around the world are making strong statements along the lines of British Foreign Minister David Lammas at his party’s annual conference that the United Kingdom wants to see “..a two state solution”.

As Dr Milshtein explained: “Perhaps” the least bad solution is to deal with Hezbollah and make northern Israel safe.

Then to deal with Hamas who are supported by Hezbollah although, as he put it, the two hate each other but are united in their mutual hatred towards Israel. The next step would be to resolve the West Bank issue which is a territory made up of a patchwork or Palestinian and ‘Israeli’ settlements.

As I write this I am able to look along the coastline to Jaffa.

I walked there yesterday and found it to be as a new found Jewish friend described it: “…a beautiful place of Jewish-Arab coexistence”.

I found it even more impressive. It is dominated architecturally by St Peter’s Roman Catholic Church standing next to a Moslem Mosque and other different religious centres as well as an impressive archway testifying to 400 years of Turkish rule.

Today Tel Aviv heard the disturbing roar of aircraft. Tomorrow it could be rockets and drones.

Life goes on with people enjoying the beach, cafes and bars. I asked someone at the next table over coffee this morning what they fear most and the somewhat surprising reply was: “World war”.

David Lammy’s statement and that of politicians across what we used to know as the Western Alliance is extremely apt. The question everyone should be asking is what are they going to do about it.

Unfortunately, as Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi might say, they won’t tell you. As of today it is simply war goes on and we shall have to wait and see.