Rob Jetten, leader of the centrist Democrats 66 (D66), said he was “very confident” of assembling a governing coalition after Dutch parliamentary elections delivered a dead heat between his party and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV).
With almost all ballots counted on Thursday, both D66 and the PVV were projected to take 26 of the 150 seats in the lower house, leaving coalition arithmetic—and the first move in talks—on a knife-edge.
The result represents a marked reversal from the previous cycle for Wilders, whose party has shed more than a quarter of its seats since its high-water mark two years ago. Mainstream parties had already ruled out entering government with the PVV following the collapse of the last coalition earlier this year, sharply limiting Wilders’ potential partners even if late counts nudge his vote tally ahead. By contrast, D66 nearly tripled its representation, positioning Jetten to explore agreements across the centre and centre-right.
Speaking after exit polls and near-complete counts put D66 level with the PVV, Jetten framed the outcome as a mandate for parties “in the centre to work together and deliver”. His campaign broadened D66’s focus beyond climate and education to immigration and the housing shortage, themes that dominated the campaign alongside public finances and trust in government. At 38, Jetten would become the Netherlands’ youngest—and its first openly gay—prime minister if he secures a majority.
Attention now turns to procedure. Party leaders are expected to meet on Friday to determine next steps, including whether to appoint an initial “scout” to sound out combinations while final tallies are completed. Coalition formation in the Netherlands typically runs to months, and this parliament is fragmenting further, raising the likelihood of a four-party (or larger) agreement if D66 is to reach the 76-seat threshold. Early discussion among commentators has centred on potential arrangements involving the liberal-conservative VVD and the Christian Democrats (CDA), with some scope for support or participation from the Greens-Labour alliance (GL/PvdA). Any such configuration would require compromises on migration, housing, and fiscal targets.
Wilders, insisting the race is not over until the count is complete, said he would seek to take the initiative in talks if the PVV ends ahead on votes, adding that his party would “do everything we can” to prevent D66 from leading the process. With 98–99% of votes processed by Thursday afternoon, the national projection still showed a tie on seats, with a narrow popular-vote edge trading hands as remaining municipalities report. Turnout was in the high-70s, slightly above the 2023 level.
The campaign was widely viewed as a gauge of whether the European far right could extend recent gains or had reached a plateau. The Dutch result suggests limits to the PVV’s appeal when set against the combined pull of centrist and liberal parties, even as a share of right-leaning voters migrated to other conservative lists. For Jetten, the central task now is to translate vote gains into a stable governing pact without reopening fissures that brought down the previous coalition. For Wilders, exclusion by would-be partners constrains his path regardless of a possible first-place finish on raw votes.
Negotiations will likely open on a small set of priorities. On migration, any D66-led configuration would need agreement with parties advocating tighter controls, a balance that could be struck through administrative measures and European-level coordination. On housing, parties campaigned on accelerating building permits and expanding social and mid-market supply; the question for coalition drafters is how far to loosen planning rules and ring-fence funding in the 2026 budget. Education and skills, a core D66 theme, are candidates for early-term legislation, while climate policy will test the breadth of consensus after an election in which cost-of-living concerns often trumped longer-term targets.
Procedurally, the House of Representatives will first designate an intermediary to map feasible combinations before one or more informateurs are appointed to draft a substantive accord. Only when the outlines are in place would the chamber back a formateur—almost certainly the leader of the largest participating party—to assemble a cabinet. Given the parity at the top of the table and the number of potential partners, the sequencing of those steps—and who is seen to control them—may matter as much as the final count in shaping the political narrative over the coming days.
What is clear from the preliminary outcome is that centrist parties improved their position and that the far right, while still a major force, lacks an obvious governing route. Whether that translates into a durable parliamentary alliance will depend on how quickly parties can converge on a programme that addresses migration pressures, the housing shortage, and public-service delivery without reigniting the disagreements that brought down the last government. For now, the Netherlands waits on the final tally—and on Friday’s first moves—to see who is invited to try to turn 26 seats into a workable majority.
