As you read this Russia may have invaded, or at least be about to invade, Ukraine. In parallel insurgents supported by Moscow may now be governing Mali with France and its supporting forces withdrawn. Conferences and high level meetings aimed at preventing both were being held and scheduled throughout last week.
In a speech this week in Germany British Prime Minister – yes he still is Prime Minister – Boris Johnson appealed for unity on sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion. Lack of a unified response to the threat has been a hallmark of European and trans-Atlantic reaction from the start.
By way of justifying the headline let’s summarise last week’s news reports that are far too complex to detail in full. Bulgaria has said it will accept only a few hundred NATO troops to participate in the joint battle training group on its territory and they will be under its command. America is sending 100 troops.
President Macron has described EU countries as naïve regarding his defence agreement with Greece and has said publicly that defence is best done nationally in cooperation with other countries.
That NATO has been weak and disorganised in the face of Russian “military exercises” that looked remarkably like preparations for invasion is shamefully accurate.
President Putin’s reported comment that the west has superior forces “but we have nuclear weapons” is alarming.
- Does History Repeat Itself? asks Chris White.
- Divide and Conquer Rules, OK?
- Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose…!
On Friday reports of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s two hour call with Joe Biden suggest that when Johnson said that Britain wanted to do all it could to support Ukraine the response was “we ain’t going anywhere without you pal”.
Curiously Biden who, it is suggested, told Macron in a call that the US wants a trade deal with France and Europe but has refused one with the UK. Reports running in parallel with the above suggest that British ministers are having to negotiate trade deals with individual U.S. states.
An Irish politician is reported to be seeking a referendum to cement Irish neutrality in its constitution. Finland is said to be aggravated by comments made about Ukraine by German Chancellor Scholz. This would appear to put positive reports about Finland joining NATO in a negative context given given strong opposition to it in Finland.
The German Government’s track record on Ukraine is reportedly behind a dramatic fall in public support for the current regime. At a critical time in Europe’s modern history Germany seems to have lost its direction.
Allegations of autocratic rule in Poland and Hungary abound and there are question marks about other states bordering Russia. It would appear that Europe, despite political statements to the contrary is sliding towards a form of trade association rather than a united continent.
According to many news reports Putin has “lost out”. Reality suggests the opposite. Russian power is in the ascendency. President Macron seems to have said the same thing in his speech to l’Ecole Militaire.
He quoted von Clausewitz: “war is the continuation of policy by other means”.
He went on to describe issues that divide the world. Macron’s analysis was profound and not good news for the western world. His predominant stance is the strengthening of national defence and cooperation across Europe. That smacks of ETO rather than NATO and he has stated that Europe needs to stop relying on the United States.
The U.K., apparently no longer having a special relationship with America – or Europe for that matter – is in the final stages of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). CPTPP is a free trade agreement between eleven countries around the Pacific Rim.
Now is that good news? Perhaps, but it will turn Britain’s attention away from the problems of its European neighbours. That point will take on greater importance when the costs of sanctions against Russia come home to roost.
We really are in a period of privatio boni.
——————– Dateline: Corner Cafe, Deal, Kent. ——————-
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