Russia is preparing to announce a supposed victory over Ukraine and NATO on 24 February, marking the third anniversary of its full-scale invasion, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR). The Kremlin is reportedly planning a large-scale disinformation campaign to support this narrative.
Disinformation Strategy Ahead of the Anniversary
The Ukrainian intelligence service has indicated that Moscow is seeking to use the anniversary to bolster domestic support and undermine Ukraine’s resilience. The narrative of victory is expected to extend beyond Ukraine, with claims of a broader triumph over NATO, reinforcing Russia’s longstanding assertion that it is engaged in a conflict not just with Kyiv but with the Western alliance.
According to HUR, the Russian government has instructed its propaganda apparatus to intensify efforts to sow doubt among Ukrainians, destabilise the country, and erode international confidence in Ukraine’s leadership. The campaign aims to weaken Western support by pushing messages designed to portray Ukraine as losing the war, its government as illegitimate, and its allies as unreliable.
Key Narratives of the Kremlin’s Campaign
In the coming days, Russian propaganda channels are expected to amplify several recurring themes, including:
- Claims that the West has abandoned Ukraine.
- Suggestions that neither Moscow nor Washington takes European or Ukrainian interests into account.
- Allegations that the United States and Russia have already negotiated an outcome behind Ukraine’s back.
- Assertions that the Ukrainian government lacks legitimacy.
- Reports that the Ukrainian military is failing on the front lines.
- Accusations of large-scale corruption involving American financial aid to Ukraine.
This effort is designed to weaken Ukraine’s domestic and international position, particularly as Western support remains a crucial factor in the country’s ability to continue resisting Russian aggression.
Declaring a ‘Victory’ Over Ukraine and NATO
Moscow is reportedly preparing to announce a supposed victory over Ukraine and, by extension, NATO, aligning with the Kremlin’s long-standing narrative that it is engaged in a broader conflict with the Western alliance.
This declaration is expected to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion, reinforcing domestic propaganda efforts and justifying continued aggression.
Exploiting US-Russia Talks for Psychological Operations
Russian intelligence services have been instructed to exploit diplomatic efforts by the new US administration to end the war, particularly the 18 February meeting between American and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia. Moscow is expected to manipulate these events to push the narrative that Russia is a “constructive” party willing to negotiate peace, while simultaneously labelling Ukraine’s European allies as “enemies of peace” for their continued support of Kyiv.
By framing itself as open to diplomacy while continuing its military aggression, Russia seeks to shift blame for the ongoing conflict and undermine international sanctions.
Targeting European Partners
The Kremlin’s strategy includes direct attacks on Ukraine’s European partners, particularly those that continue to increase support for Kyiv. Russian propaganda aims to discredit these governments by portraying them as obstacles to peace, furthering its goal of weakening Western unity.
As Ukraine marks another year of resistance, Kyiv warns its partners of Russia’s increasing use of disinformation as a tool of warfare, urging continued vigilance against Kremlin narratives aimed at dividing and destabilising the international response to the conflict.
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