For decades, OPEC cast a long shadow over global prosperity. Its oil embargoes, production cuts, and quota manipulations dictated recessions, inflationary spirals, and foreign policy humiliations.
It was a cartel that once held the free world hostage. Today, that era is over. OPEC is finished. Its latest gesture — a risible plan to add a mere 137,000 barrels per day in November — is not the act of a master but the death rattle of an organisation in terminal decline.
Once, Vienna’s announcements could send markets into paroxysms. Now, traders barely blink. Angola has walked away. Nigeria produces at a fraction of its potential. Iraq routinely flouts quotas.
Russia, the awkward partner in OPEC+, is a liability rather than a leader. Even Saudi Arabia, long the undisputed swing producer, is cornered: desperate for cash to finance domestic ambitions, yet hemmed in by Washington, which will not tolerate high petrol prices in the first year of Trump’s second presidency.
What remains of OPEC is not a disciplined cartel but a fractious club, clinging to rituals long past their meaning. Its communiqués are heavy with rhetoric but empty of substance. It no longer controls the market. It is, in truth, irrelevant.
The illusion of control
The token November increase underscores the scale of the decline. Once, OPEC’s movements could move millions of barrels, shifting global supply and demand. Today, the bloc fiddles at the margins, adding a rounding error and hoping someone notices. Its credibility, once its greatest asset, is squandered. Members cheat. Promises are hollow. Markets have learned not to fear OPEC announcements but to shrug at them.
Even more revealing is the growing divergence of priorities within the cartel. Saudi Arabia seeks stability and international favour. Russia seeks revenue to fund a war it cannot afford. Nigeria and Angola chase domestic political imperatives. Iraq pursues both. The bloc’s internal cohesion is fraying. There is no unanimity, no strategic vision — only the desperate pursuit of short-term revenue.
A dangerous vacuum
Britain should not be lulled into complacency. A declining OPEC does not guarantee cheap energy; it guarantees volatility. When the cartel cannot enforce restraint, competition among producers leads to price wars, erratic investment, and sudden shocks. The 2014 crash and the 2022 energy crisis should have taught this lesson. Markets respond not to plans but to chaos. The next shock is inevitable.
And yet, with danger comes opportunity. For the first time in decades, Britain can envision an energy future unshackled from OPEC’s whims. The cartel’s decline opens a door to strategic autonomy, if only it is seized with foresight and determination.
Britain’s imperative: energy independence
The task is clear. Britain must accelerate its journey to energy independence, despite its current indecisive and inept government. That means responsibly expanding North Sea production, where untapped reserves remain viable. It means investing decisively in nuclear power, the only large-scale, low-carbon energy source capable of providing stable baseload electricity. It means supporting renewables with pragmatism rather than ideology, ensuring solar, wind, and emerging technologies contribute reliably to the grid.
Energy security should not be a green slogan; it is the cornerstone of national resilience. Without it, Britain remains exposed to the whims of foreign producers, price spikes, and geopolitical crises. Cheaper petrol today will mean nothing if tomorrow’s winter is marked by shortages and soaring bills. OPEC’s collapse must be met with preparedness, not complacency.
Europe’s vulnerability
Britain is not alone in its exposure. Europe, too, remains dangerously dependent on imported oil and gas. The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the continent’s strategic naivety. European nations have relied on autocrats for decades, confident that markets would supply energy reliably. That confidence has been shattered. OPEC’s decline should serve as a second warning. Without structural reform, Europe will lurch from crisis to crisis, paying for its historical dependence on foreign oil.
The clock is ticking
The decline of OPEC is not merely about today’s price or tomorrow’s supply. It is about the long-term shift in global energy dynamics. Electric vehicles nibble at petrol demand. Renewable energy is steadily increasing its share of the energy mix. Shale fields in Texas, offshore rigs in Brazil, and new extraction technologies are eroding OPEC’s influence year by year. The window for cashing in is narrowing. Every token increase, every superficial announcement, is an act of desperation, not confidence.
OPEC’s behaviour is that of a wounded empire, aware of its fading power and scrambling to maximise revenue before irrelevance sets in. Its members are like generals issuing orders to soldiers who have already deserted. The energy markets have moved on, but OPEC has not.
Seizing the moment
Britain, and Europe more broadly, must seize this historic moment. Dependency on OPEC is no longer inevitable. Investment in domestic energy production, storage, and grid resilience is not optional; it is strategic necessity. The declining cartel offers a rare opportunity: to escape the tyranny of external supply shocks, to insulate national economies, and to chart a path toward true energy sovereignty.
The stakes are not hypothetical. A failure to act will leave Britain and Europe exposed to the next crisis, whatever its cause: geopolitical conflict, technical disruption, or price volatility. Strategic complacency will be punished. In contrast, decisive action will allow the West to convert OPEC’s decline into a lasting advantage.
OPEC’s obituary
The obituary of OPEC is being written in real time. Its once-feared power is now a shadow of its former self. Ministers in Vienna and Riyadh can issue communiqués, hold meetings, and announce token increases, but the world no longer trembles at their decisions. The cartel is dying, and the energy future is being decided elsewhere: in the hands of nations willing to invest, innovate, and take control of their own destiny.
Britain must not squander this moment. OPEC’s grip has slipped; its reign is over. The age of dependence on a crumbling cartel should be consigned to history. Our task now is clear: to build a resilient, sovereign, and diversified energy system that ensures when OPEC finally falls into irrelevance, we are not caught in its death throes but standing independently, secure, and free.
History will not wait for hesitation. OPEC is dead — Britain & Europe must seize the moment.
