The leadership of the Russian Defence Ministry is exerting pressure on President Vladimir Putin to announce a new wave of mobilisation to bolster the military and offset losses in the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing a source in Moscow.
The WSJ reports that earlier this year, in 2024, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and other high-ranking officials proposed the idea of a large-scale mobilisation to Putin. They suggested that it be carried out before his so-called “inauguration.” However, Putin declined, opting instead to rely on volunteers signing contracts to serve in the military.
In an effort to increase the number of troops without resorting to full mobilisation, Putin attempted to attract more recruits by doubling the one-time payment for new enlistees to 400,000 roubles (approximately $4,300) in July. Despite these measures, the Defence Ministry, now under the supervision of another official, is reportedly still facing a shortage of personnel. This deficit is seen as a significant hindrance to Russia’s military efforts, particularly in organising a substantial counteroffensive in the Kursk region.
Implications of Potential Mobilisation
Sources cited by the WSJ suggest that the idea of mobilisation is gaining traction within Russian circles, with an increasing number of people considering it “inevitable.” The pressure to conduct another mobilisation wave is compounded by the high number of casualties in Ukraine, estimated to have reached approximately one million. This staggering figure underscores the severity of Russia’s challenges in sustaining its military campaign.
The situation has reportedly become more acute following Russian forces’ involvement in the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. In response, Russia has resorted to deploying young and inexperienced conscripts and redirecting troops from other front-line areas in Ukraine to defend Russian territory.
Political Risks and Public Perception
The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the potential political risks associated with a new wave of mobilisation. There are fears that such a move could disrupt the current balance in Russian society’s perception of the war, potentially leading to unrest or decreased support for Putin’s leadership. The Russian government has so far managed to maintain a level of control over public opinion regarding the conflict. However, a new mobilisation could challenge this control and provoke a shift in public sentiment.
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