The planned end of electrolyser production at Cummins’ plant in Oevel, in Belgium’s Antwerp province, has become the latest test of Europe’s ambition to build a domestic green hydrogen industry.
The site, formerly part of Hydrogenics, is expected to lose around 100 jobs as the US group winds down manufacturing activity linked to hydrogen production technology.
Cummins has linked the decision to a broader strategic review of its electrolyser business and a deterioration in market conditions. In its full-year 2025 results, released on 5 February 2026, the company said it would halt new commercial activity for electrolysers following that review, and it recorded charges associated with the segment. Industry publications have reported that the company’s financial disclosures included substantial costs connected to the electrolyser business during 2025.
The Oevel announcement has been read in Belgium as another indicator that the European market for renewable hydrogen is struggling to move beyond pilot projects and grant-backed announcements. While the Oevel plant is not in the Port of Antwerp itself, it sits in the same industrial ecosystem, and the decision lands as European policymakers prepare further measures aimed at making hydrogen viable at scale.
Targets set, but demand remains limited
The European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, presented in 2022, set an indicative target of producing 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen and importing 10 million tonnes by 2030. Achieving that level of production depends not only on building electrolysers but also on securing large volumes of renewable electricity, grid connections, and long-term customers willing to pay a premium for low-emissions molecules.
The European Court of Auditors has warned that the EU’s renewable hydrogen goals are not on track and that the gap between ambition and credible project delivery remains large. In mid-2024, auditors said capacity in advanced development stages fell well short of political targets, and urged a sharper focus on directing support towards projects most likely to reach operation.
The market problem is often described by developers as an “offtake” gap. Hydrogen projects typically require long-term contracts with industrial buyers before banks will finance construction. Yet many prospective buyers are waiting for lower prices, regulatory clarity, and dependable supply chains. A recent ING analysis described hydrogen in Europe as “stuck in the pilot phase”, pointing to high costs and a slow pace of commercialisation.
Regulation and electricity prices shape investment decisions
EU rules defining when hydrogen can be counted as “renewable” have tightened the link between electrolysis and additional renewable electricity. The Commission adopted delegated acts setting out the conditions for renewable fuels of non-biological origin, including criteria often summarised as “additionality” and rules on time and location matching between electricity generation and hydrogen production.
These rules aim to ensure hydrogen production increases the supply of renewable power rather than diverting it from other uses. Developers, however, have argued that compliance requirements can increase costs and complicate project design, particularly where grid constraints limit access to new renewable generation.
Electricity prices remain central. Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water with electricity; when power is expensive, the resulting hydrogen struggles to compete with conventional “grey” hydrogen made from natural gas. This is one reason developers have focused on locations with abundant low-cost renewables, notably parts of Spain and Portugal.
Subsidies are beginning to flow, but unevenly
The EU’s Hydrogen Bank is intended to narrow the price gap by providing support per kilogram of renewable hydrogen produced. In the pilot auction, the Commission reported 132 bids from projects in 17 countries. The results, published in spring 2024, showed winning bids concentrated in the Iberian Peninsula and a small number of other locations, reflecting renewable power economics.
That concentration has driven political debate about whether future auctions should include country “baskets” or other mechanisms to avoid the scheme favouring only the cheapest solar and wind regions.
Projects continue, but timetables slip
Despite the setbacks, some large European schemes are still progressing. In the Netherlands, Shell’s 200MW Holland Hydrogen 1 project is under construction on the Maasvlakte and is linked to discussions about grid connection arrangements, with a temporary high-voltage connection highlighted by the Port of Rotterdam in 2024. Shell has also stated that commissioning for Holland Hydrogen 1 is due in 2026.
On the demand side, Reuters reported in 2025 that RWE and TotalEnergies agreed a long-term supply deal for green hydrogen from a German electrolysis facility, with deliveries planned to start in 2030. Such contracts are still relatively rare and highlight how far ahead many projects’ commercial timelines remain.
At the same time, Reuters has reported companies trimming ambitions when economics do not add up. Spain’s Repsol cut its 2030 green hydrogen target in 2025, citing delays in market development, regulatory uncertainty and costs.
What the Antwerp decision signals
The Cummins move matters because it touches the supply chain Europe needs if it wants a domestic electrolyser industry, not simply imported equipment. It also illustrates the feedback loop between demand and manufacturing: when project developers cannot secure offtake and finance, equipment orders fall; when manufacturers retreat, supply security weakens and costs can rise.
For European policymakers, the immediate question is whether new support mechanisms can generate bankable demand quickly enough to keep industrial capability in Europe. For industry, the issue is more basic: whether renewable hydrogen can reach a price and regulatory footing that allows it to compete in the sectors where Brussels expects it to replace fossil fuels.
