Warsaw, 1 June 2025 — As voting continues across Poland in a pivotal presidential runoff, the country finds itself deeply polarised, with the final result expected to be determined by a razor-thin margin.
The race between Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), and Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), has become one of the most contentious in recent political memory.
Despite a string of scandals that would typically derail a candidate’s campaign, Nawrocki appears to have consolidated his support base. Allegations regarding his past links to criminal networks and involvement in facilitating sex workers during his earlier employment in Sopot have not significantly dented his standing in the polls. Nor has a separate controversy concerning the acquisition of property in Gdańsk. Instead, Nawrocki has framed the attacks against him as politically motivated fabrications, a narrative that has resonated with parts of the electorate aligned with the PiS camp.
The most serious of the accusations stems from a report by Onet, which cited testimony claiming Nawrocki coordinated the provision of prostitutes to guests while working as a hotel security guard. Additional reports have also questioned the integrity of Nawrocki’s security clearance, granted during his tenure at the Institute of National Remembrance. PiS has dismissed these stories as media-driven attempts to derail his candidacy, and Nawrocki has vowed legal action against the outlet.
Far from retreating in the face of scrutiny, Nawrocki has adopted an aggressive posture, casting himself as a populist outsider under siege from establishment forces. Drawing parallels with former U.S. President Donald Trump—whose political allies endorsed him during the campaign and whose movement was represented at a CPAC event in Poland—Nawrocki has maintained a confrontational stance, which appears to have galvanised his support among PiS voters.
On the other side, Trzaskowski has run a more traditional campaign focused on reinforcing ties with the EU and promoting the Civic Coalition’s institutional agenda. As mayor of Warsaw and a previous presidential contender, he enjoys strong recognition among urban and pro-European voters. However, PiS has sought to frame him as a proxy for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose administration is showing signs of waning popularity. Recent polling has indicated that over half of respondents view the Tusk government negatively, less than two years into its term.
PiS has also mounted a counteroffensive by raising questions about Trzaskowski’s record as mayor. In recent days, government-linked media have revisited allegations related to a long-running waste management scandal in Warsaw, although no charges have been brought against the candidate himself. Additionally, Trzaskowski has dismissed as absurd PiS claims that he is avoiding drug testing, a line of attack widely interpreted as an attempt to create doubt rather than provide substantiated criticism.
What is striking in the final hours of this campaign is the extent to which polarisation has defined both tone and substance. Neither candidate has been able to break meaningfully into the other’s core support base. Instead, the contest has crystallised into a stark binary: a government-backed liberal with EU alignment versus a nationalist challenger promising disruption and confronting what he calls a corrupt liberal elite.
The result will have immediate implications not just for Poland’s internal dynamics but also for its standing in the European Union and NATO. Trzaskowski’s victory would secure alignment between the presidency and government, smoothing the path for continued reform and closer cooperation with Brussels. A Nawrocki presidency, however, could trigger political gridlock, given his oppositional stance and PiS’s current position in parliament. It may also complicate relations with the EU, particularly on judicial reform and media independence.
On the question of Ukraine, both candidates claim to support continued assistance, but their strategic framing differs. Trzaskowski has articulated a position favouring Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership and integration into Western structures. Nawrocki has signalled a more restrained view, suggesting Poland’s interest lies in Ukraine acting as a buffer rather than as a formal ally under mutual defence obligations.
As of early afternoon, voter turnout appears robust. Reports from polling stations indicate long queues in urban centres, with rural areas also showing steady participation. The margin between the two candidates is likely to be so small that full results may not be available until well into the night or early Monday.
What is certain is that Poland’s political temperature has reached a boiling point. With campaign rhetoric growing increasingly aggressive and both camps accusing each other of moral and political bankruptcy, today’s election will not only determine who holds the presidency but will also offer a reflection of the country’s divided political soul.
The final result may bring clarity — or, if Nawrocki wins, usher in a period of renewed institutional confrontation. Either way, the outcome will resonate far beyond Warsaw, across European capitals and within NATO, as Poland recalibrates its position on the regional and global stage.
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Trzaskowski and Nawrocki Head to Runoff After Tight First Round in Polish Presidential Race
