Approximately a week after Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon, Naim Qassem, the deputy secretary-general of the militant group, issued a surprising statement.
Qassem, one of the few surviving leaders of Hezbollah, announced the organisation’s willingness to agree to a ceasefire without preconditions. This marked a notable departure from their previous stance, where they tied the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon to the war in Gaza.
Qassem’s message, broadcast from a bunker in Beirut, came amidst ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It was delivered shortly after the death of a high-ranking Hezbollah official, reportedly responsible for coordinating with Iran and Syria and for smuggling weapons into Lebanon. This official was killed in a precision airstrike in Damascus, highlighting the increasing pressure on Hezbollah from multiple fronts.
The airstrike in Damascus occurred in the Al-Mazzeh district, near the Iranian embassy, hitting a building housing members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah operatives. Syrian sources reported that the commander of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, responsible for weapons logistics from Iran to Lebanon, was killed in the attack. His death, during a high-level meeting, suggests that Israeli intelligence had precise knowledge of his location and movements.
The elimination of this key figure, alongside other airstrikes in Syria, may have played a role in Hezbollah’s decision to seek a ceasefire. It is speculated that the group’s leadership, realising the vulnerability of its key personnel, reached out to intermediaries in Doha, Qatar, to negotiate. However, these negotiations were met with a blunt response: Hezbollah was not in a position to demand any security guarantees, not even from a higher power.
Diplomatic Moves and Military Reality
Qassem’s ceasefire declaration contrasts with Hezbollah’s ongoing rocket barrages targeting areas from Haifa to Caesarea. Despite Qassem’s statements, Hezbollah launched 150 rockets into Israeli territory.
On the Israeli side, the ground operation in southern Lebanon continues unabated. Israel’s fourth division has been deployed, and intensive airstrikes and artillery fire have targeted Hezbollah strongholds in the Bekaa Valley and Baalbek.
Simultaneously, airstrikes on Syrian targets persist, targeting Hezbollah’s logistical networks and military assets. These strikes are part of a broader strategy to weaken Hezbollah’s operational capabilities while isolating the Lebanese theatre from the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Dividing the Conflicts: Gaza and Lebanon
One of Israel’s primary objectives has been to separate the conflict in Gaza, where it battles Hamas, from the fighting in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Qassem’s willingness to negotiate a ceasefire in Lebanon without linking it to the Gaza situation suggests that Israel may have succeeded in this strategic goal. This separation of conflicts allows Israel to focus on securing its northern border while continuing operations against Hamas in Gaza.
Hezbollah’s position appears increasingly tenuous, especially as Israel demands the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This resolution, which calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon beyond the Litani River and the disarmament of militias, is a cornerstone of Israel’s ceasefire terms. While Hezbollah seeks an unconditional ceasefire, Israel insists that any negotiations must include terms for a complete military withdrawal and disarmament in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s Leadership Crisis
The loss of key Hezbollah figures has undoubtedly influenced the group’s readiness to negotiate. Since the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and his two immediate successors, Qassem remains one of the few senior leaders still alive.
Qassem’s speech also demonstrates a shift in Hezbollah’s stance. Unlike Nasrallah, who tied the conflict in Lebanon to the broader regional struggle in Gaza, Qassem now emphasises the need to address the Lebanese conflict separately. This shift may reflect the increasing strain on Hezbollah as it faces sustained Israeli military pressure and the loss of key personnel.
The Role of Qatar and International Mediation
Qassem’s outreach to Qatari intermediaries highlights the role of international actors in the ongoing conflict. Qatar, which has maintained close ties with various factions in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah, is positioned as a potential mediator. However, reports indicate that Qatar has been reluctant to offer any personal security guarantees to Hezbollah’s leaders, likely reflecting a recognition of the group’s weakened position.
Moreover, Qatar has reportedly threatened to withdraw financial support for the reconstruction of Gaza if Hamas does not progress on negotiations. This pressure, combined with the financial assets Hamas holds in Qatar, could significantly impact the future of the conflict, especially if Qatar decides to exert further leverage on Hamas and its leadership.
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