Israel Launches Ground Operation in Southern Lebanon: What Lies Ahead

In the early hours of 1 October, after several days of escalating tensions and military activity, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) officially launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon. This follows intense air and artillery strikes, as well as a series of intelligence-driven military actions aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s stronghold in the region. By 2:00 am, Israeli forces confirmed they had crossed into Lebanese territory, marking the start of what could be a protracted and complex conflict.

The groundwork for this offensive was laid earlier on 30 September, when reports of IDF units advancing towards Lebanon began circulating. Initially, the Israeli military refrained from confirming the operation, leading to a wave of speculation across social media. Despite attempts to downplay the significance of these reports, it soon became clear that a full-scale ground invasion was imminent.

The decision to launch this operation comes as a direct response to ongoing Hezbollah provocations, which have been intensifying over the past year. Israel’s northern towns and settlements have been under near-constant missile and rocket fire, with the militant group showing no signs of adhering to UN Resolution 1701—a resolution adopted in 2006 to prevent armed Hezbollah presence south of the Litani River.

A Long-Brewing Conflict

The current operation is part of a broader military strategy named “Operation Northern Arrow,” which has been under development for some time. Israel has long anticipated the need for a ground invasion, particularly after Hezbollah’s repeated violations of the 2006 ceasefire agreement and their continued military build-up in the region.

For 18 years, Hezbollah has steadily increased its presence in southern Lebanon, amassing rocket arsenals, digging tunnels, and fortifying positions in preparation for future conflict. While international pressure, particularly from the United Nations, sought to maintain peace in the region, Hezbollah ignored these efforts, emboldened by support from Iran.

Despite this, Israel’s northern residents, particularly those in towns like Metula and Kiryat Shmona, have faced relentless shelling. The situation reached a tipping point on 7 October, when Hezbollah’s actions mirrored the kind of large-scale assault seen earlier in the conflict. Israel has since made it clear that military intervention is the only way to ensure the safety of its citizens and to neutralise Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

The Ground Invasion Begins

By the early hours of 1 October, at least three Israeli divisions had crossed into southern Lebanon, supported by air and artillery strikes. Early reports suggest that the offensive is being carried out along three main fronts: along the coast from Rosh Hanikra toward Sidon, along the Syrian border, and through the central region near Bint Jbeil.

The goal appears to be the creation of a buffer zone, likely extending 10 to 15 kilometres into Lebanese territory, which would push Hezbollah’s short-range missile capabilities far enough from the Israeli border to mitigate the immediate threat. This approach marks a significant departure from Israel’s 2006 ground invasion strategy, where Israeli forces initially hesitated to engage in large-scale operations.

This time, the IDF appears intent on securing a substantial portion of southern Lebanon quickly, potentially preventing Hezbollah from reoccupying vacated areas, as they did in 2006. The hope is that by establishing firm control over this buffer zone, Israel can neutralise Hezbollah’s rocket and missile-launching capabilities, thereby protecting its northern towns and cities.

Hezbollah’s Response

Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been preparing for this moment for years. Their leaders have issued strong statements, vowing to turn southern Lebanon into a “graveyard for Zionists.” However, reports indicate that many of Hezbollah’s high-ranking members have already fled across the Syrian border, anticipating Israel’s overwhelming military response. It appears that while lower-ranking fighters remain committed to engaging the IDF, Hezbollah’s leadership may be less willing to face the full force of Israel’s military.

At the same time, Israeli forces have also targeted Syrian military positions, particularly those along the Damascus-Beirut highway. These strikes are intended to prevent reinforcements from reaching Hezbollah from Syria. One of the key targets has been the headquarters of Syria’s Fourth Armoured Division, commanded by Maher al-Assad, the brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Reports suggest that Israel’s airstrikes have significantly disrupted Syrian efforts to support Hezbollah, though it remains unclear if Maher al-Assad was directly affected by these strikes.

What’s Next?

As the ground operation unfolds, it is difficult to predict the full scope and duration of Israel’s campaign. The IDF will likely focus on securing key strategic points and establishing a defensive buffer zone before considering further advancements. Hezbollah’s ability to sustain prolonged resistance is also uncertain, given the substantial losses it has already suffered in recent airstrikes and the potential weakening of its command structure.

In the coming days, Israel is expected to outline the specific objectives of the operation, likely focusing on the protection of its northern border and the long-term security of its citizens. How far the operation will extend into Lebanese territory remains unclear, but it is evident that Israel is determined to avoid the pitfalls of its 2006 campaign and to decisively neutralise Hezbollah’s threat once and for all.

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