In the early morning of June 8th, an alarming drone buzz echoed once again in the skies over Russia’s Tula Region: for the second time this month, Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles struck one of the largest chemical plants in Russia and Europe — the “NAK Azot” plant in Novomoskovsk. The first attack had occurred on May 24th.
This strike could become a turning point not only in the energy and industrial confrontation between Moscow and Kyiv but also in the fate of the European food system.
NAK Azot: The Heart of Agricultural Stability
The NAK Azot plant is part of the EuroChem holding and represents one of the largest producers of mineral fertilizers not only in Russia but in the world. Its production capacity exceeds 1,355 thousand tons of active fertilizer ingredients per year.
These volumes are comparable to the annual agricultural needs of the EU’s largest economy — Germany. Berlin consumes about 1,034 thousand tons of fertilizers annually, approximately the same as Poland. Thus, Azot alone is capable of covering nearly all the needs of the EU’s largest consumer.
If considering only nitrogen fertilizers, NAK is capable of meeting the combined demand of Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
But this is not just about numbers — the Azot plant is a critical link in the delicately balanced chain of Europe’s food security. Fertilizers are the foundation of any harvest. A shortage means lower crop yields, higher grain prices, and, as a result, food price inflation.
Technological War: What Happened on June 8th
If we assume that following the first attack by Ukrainian drones the Azot plant halted operations for nearly two weeks, this disruption could already have severe consequences for Europe’s food security. During the second strike on June 8th, drones hit chemical storage and processing facilities. According to local authorities, an ammonia leak and subsequent fire were recorded. At least two people were injured.
A month earlier, on May 24th, the attack also damaged the plant’s infrastructure, including gas pipelines and nitric acid tanks.
The consequences of strikes on ammonia storage tanks could be horrific and threaten a large-scale environmental disaster. Ammonia is a caustic and toxic gas. Preliminary estimates suggest losses could reach hundreds of millions of rubles, but far more dangerous are the consequences that go beyond economics.
In response to these events, EuroChem appealed to the UN, calling for intervention: according to company representatives, international deliveries of mineral fertilizers in colossal volumes are now under threat — and this is not merely Russia’s internal issue. This is a threat of global magnitude.
Europe on the Brink of Agricultural Instability
Amid the ongoing conflict, European farmers are already entering a zone of turbulence: disruptions in supply from Russia — one of the key fertilizer exporters to the EU — could severely impact the sowing campaigns of 2025–2026.
Moscow provides about a quarter of all EU fertilizer needs. For certain nitrogen products, such as UAN and CAN, Russia is the only irreplaceable supplier. The absence of imports of these types of fertilizers could directly and severely impact the agricultural sectors of France and Belgium.
Overall, disruption of this flow could trigger a chain reaction — from rising production costs of agricultural goods to shortages on the domestic market. Eastern European farmers will be especially vulnerable, as their profitability is already under pressure from climatic and economic factors. A sharp increase in fertilizer prices could lead to a reduction in sown areas, lower crop yields, and even shortages of certain crops such as wheat and corn.
Moscow’s Geopolitical Response: A Threat to the Grain Deal
Russia’s response was not long in coming. Behind the scenes of the Kremlin, options are being discussed to withdraw from the grain deal — the fragile agreement brokered by the UN and Turkey that allows Ukraine to export grain via Black Sea ports.
A potential strike on logistical hubs in Odesa or a blockade of transportation routes could effectively nullify Ukrainian grain exports, which play a critical role in supplying food to countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
Thus, the strike on the Azot plant may trigger a domino effect, placing fertilizers and grain on opposite sides of the same global food catastrophe.
Balance on the Razor’s Edge of Chemistry and Bread
It is symbolic that at the center of this story lies a plant whose name comes from “azot” — nitrogen, the fundamental element of life, a main component of both air and fertilizers.
Today, Azot is not just a chemical giant. It is a litmus test of geoeconomic and humanitarian stability. Its operation directly affects whether European fields will be green next year and whether food shelves will be full.
If the strikes continue and logistical channels are destroyed, Europe could face a new wave of food inflation. It is not unlikely that the issue of strategic mineral fertilizer reserves will also appear on the agenda — as has already happened with gas and grain.
In this complex equation, only one thing is clear: the world has become a hostage of logistics and chemistry, where every drop of nitric acid and every grain of wheat has a significance far beyond fields and factories.
