The ongoing negotiations surrounding a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine appear to be part of a broader geopolitical and economic strategy rather than a purely humanitarian or security-driven initiative.
According to Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI“, the ceasefire is not an isolated measure but an element within a larger scheme involving Russia, the United States, and their economic interests in Europe.
Gonchar notes that the focus of public discourse has been largely directed at official negotiations, such as those in Jeddah and Moscow. However, he argues that the real decision-making is occurring behind closed doors, where fundamental agreements are being shaped.
He points to the unexpected news that an American investor is reportedly considering the restoration of the Nord Stream pipelines. Initially, it was thought that only the second line of Nord Stream 2 would be revived, but now discussions extend to the full restoration of all four pipelines.
The Economic Dimension
From a sectoral standpoint, the prospect of American business engaging in the transit of Russian gas to Europe appears illogical. Historically, US firms have had no vested interest in this market. However, Gonchar posits that this development suggests a more profound agreement in the making—one that ties energy, security, and strategic interests together.
He argues that this scheme gained momentum following Donald Trump’s electoral victory, during the transition period before his official inauguration on 20 January 2025. During this time, key negotiators, including figures such as Steve Witkoff from the US side and Kirill Dmitriev from Russia, were reportedly advancing a comprehensive strategy. The key aim was not simply to reintroduce Russian energy into Europe but to do so in a manner that would obscure its origins and allow for mutual economic benefits between US and Russian business elites.
A Hidden Strategy to Reintegrate Russian Energy into Europe
The underlying strategy, according to Gonchar, follows a precedent set by Russia’s earlier covert energy operations. The example of “Azerbaijani” gas, which failed to make significant inroads, and “Hungarian” oil, which did succeed in bypassing sanctions, demonstrates how Russian energy exports are being channelled back into Europe under different guises.
In this case, the proposed model is one where an American-registered company, possibly in a jurisdiction such as Delaware, would purchase Russian gas at rates close to domestic Russian prices and then resell it in Europe at market rates. This would allow for the formal classification of the gas as “American” rather than Russian, thereby circumventing existing restrictions and allowing both Russian and American stakeholders to profit.
The Role of the Ceasefire in Economic Negotiations
Gonchar emphasises that the proposed ceasefire is not a standalone effort but a prerequisite for implementing this broader economic strategy. The success of this initiative depends on ensuring the safe operation of all transit routes, including those passing through Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic region.
This aligns with Trump’s broader strategy of using economic incentives to reorient Russia away from China, particularly in light of China’s reluctance to fully commit to purchasing Russian energy under terms favourable to Moscow.
Despite this potential deal, Honchar points out that Russia may not view it as entirely beneficial. While such a scheme might allow Russian energy to re-enter European markets, it would do so under conditions that heavily favour American intermediaries. The Kremlin’s priority remains securing direct revenues for its war efforts, rather than merely expanding personal wealth among elites.
Potential Implications and Challenges
The real challenge in finalising this arrangement lies in the intricate negotiations over profit distribution and political leverage. Trump’s team may have assumed that persuading Russia would be straightforward, but in reality, Moscow remains reluctant to enter an agreement that limits its direct control over its energy resources.
Furthermore, while the US side continues to pressure Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, the ultimate stumbling block remains Vladimir Putin’s hesitance. Gonchar suggests that Russia’s reluctance is not due to concerns over energy logistics but rather the broader geopolitical ramifications of aligning too closely with an economic structure dominated by the US.
The ongoing back-and-forth between Trump’s administration and the Kremlin, including recent discussions between Witkoff and Putin’s representatives, suggests that these negotiations are far from complete.
Gonchar predicts that pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire will continue, but unless the US and Russia resolve their underlying economic disputes, a lasting agreement remains uncertain.
