Today’s high-level negotiations between the United States and Russia in Riyadh have shattered any illusion that Donald Trump understands the nature of global power politics.
These were the first direct talks between senior officials from Washington and Moscow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and they exposed Trump’s desperate desire to strike a deal at any cost—without leverage, without strategy, and without regard for America’s allies.
Trump’s Rush to Appease Putin
Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who refused to engage in high-level diplomacy with Moscow while Russia continued its war, Trump wasted no time in reaching out to Vladimir Putin. Within days of assuming office, he made the first call and proposed negotiations. This alone was a diplomatic miscalculation, handing Putin a significant propaganda victory before any real talks had begun.
The result? A U.S. delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, traveled to Riyadh, where they sat across from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. From the outset, the imbalance was clear: Russia dictated the terms, while the U.S. delegation scrambled to appear constructive.
Trump’s team presented vague principles—“a permanent end to the war,” “security guarantees,” and “territorial discussions”—as if these were new ideas. The Kremlin, in turn, offered nothing in return, brushing aside the very proposals Trump hoped would earn him credit as a peacemaker.
The Fatal Miscalculation
Trump’s fundamental misunderstanding of Putin’s war in Ukraine was on full display. He and his team seemed convinced that Moscow could be “persuaded” through economic incentives or empty diplomatic gestures.
The reality is that Putin’s ambitions are not negotiable. He does not see Ukraine as a bargaining chip but as a prize to be conquered. He has no interest in a fair settlement—only in dictating terms of Ukrainian surrender.
By prioritising outreach over leverage, Trump’s administration has already weakened America’s position. Putin rejected the idea of a ceasefire outright, just as he previously dismissed negotiations under Biden.
Worse still, Lavrov made it clear that Moscow will not accept any NATO presence in Ukraine and will continue its military operations regardless of U.S. diplomatic overtures.
Yet, rather than recalibrating in response, Trump’s advisors framed the rejection as “an opportunity to continue dialogue.”
Betraying Allies and Undermining the West
Perhaps the most reckless aspect of Trump’s approach is his treatment of America’s closest allies. The European Union, which has imposed the toughest sanctions on Russia and provided crucial military support to Ukraine, was deliberately excluded from the initial round of talks. Rubio and Waltz acknowledged that Europe would need to be “consulted” but made it clear that the U.S. was taking the lead. This blatant disregard for transatlantic unity only serves to weaken the Western coalition against Russia.
European leaders, aware of Trump’s erratic policies, have already begun contingency planning. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held urgent discussions ahead of the Riyadh talks, wary that Trump might attempt to broker a deal that sells out Ukraine.
Trump’s naiveté is further underscored by his apparent belief that Russia will accept European-led peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. Lavrov explicitly rejected the idea during the negotiations, calling it “unacceptable.” Yet, Trump’s team still suggested that “further discussions” could persuade Moscow otherwise—a clear indication that they have learned nothing from Putin’s repeated dismissals of Western initiatives.
Putin’s Playbook: Exploiting Trump’s Weakness
Moscow’s response to Trump’s outreach was entirely predictable. By engaging on Trump’s terms, Putin successfully reframed the war as a dispute that can be resolved through direct U.S.-Russia negotiations, sidelining Ukraine and diminishing its agency. Lavrov’s remarks made clear that Russia views these talks as an opportunity to extract U.S. concessions while giving nothing in return.
The Kremlin has no intention of engaging in good-faith negotiations. Instead, it is playing a long game—using Trump’s eagerness to present himself as a “deal-maker” to string the U.S. along while continuing its military campaign. Every failed attempt at negotiation weakens the credibility of American deterrence and buys Russia more time to advance its war objectives.
Trump, fixated on the optics of peace rather than the substance, has walked into this trap willingly. His team’s statements after the Riyadh meeting—full of vague optimism and platitudes—suggest they have yet to realise that they are being outmaneuvered at every turn.
A Path to Disaster
If Trump’s current trajectory continues, the consequences will be severe:
- Ukraine risks losing direct U.S. support. Trump’s willingness to engage with Russia separately suggests a shift toward a policy of pressuring Kyiv into accepting territorial losses rather than defending its sovereignty.
- NATO unity will erode. European nations will be forced to reconsider their reliance on American leadership and may move toward a more independent security policy, weakening the alliance.
- Russia will be emboldened. Seeing that Trump is willing to negotiate from a position of weakness, Moscow may escalate its military actions, calculating that Washington will be slow to respond.
- China and other authoritarian states will take note. If Trump’s approach to Russia succeeds in undermining Western cohesion, Beijing may take similar actions regarding Taiwan, knowing that the U.S. is more interested in optics than deterrence.
A Failing Strategy
Trump’s diplomatic strategy toward Russia is not just misguided—it is dangerous. His belief that he can charm or negotiate his way into an end to the war in Ukraine is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of Putin’s objectives. The Riyadh talks have already demonstrated that Trump is willing to make concessions without securing anything in return, a pattern that will only continue if he remains committed to this naïve approach.
By sidelining allies, underestimating Russia, and treating Ukraine as a secondary issue, Trump is setting the stage for a disastrous geopolitical outcome. The reality is clear: Putin is not looking for peace. He is looking for victory. And Trump, in his desperate attempt to appear as a world statesman, is giving him exactly what he wants.
If the U.S. does not correct course, Trump’s naive diplomacy will not bring an end to the war—it will prolong it, embolden America’s adversaries, and undermine the very principles of Western security.
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