Ukraine’s recent military strikes deep into Russian territory have highlighted a shift in the dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
While much of the discussion in Russian media revolves around missile systems like the RS-26 “Rubezh” or “Kedr,” the focus on these weapons, often touted as propaganda tools, diverts attention from critical setbacks faced by Russia on the battlefield.
The strategic successes of Ukraine’s military, particularly the precision strikes on high-value targets, expose vulnerabilities in Russian defence systems and hint at broader implications for the war.
Targeted Strikes on Russian Command Centres
Reports indicate that Ukraine utilised advanced weaponry, including Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, to target operational-level command centres on Russian soil. These strikes are said to have been highly effective, with minimal interception success by Russian air defences. Although Moscow claims that most incoming missiles were neutralised, evidence suggests otherwise. Analysts note that only two out of eight missiles might have been intercepted, with the remaining reaching their targets, causing significant damage.
This raises questions about the effectiveness of Russian air defence systems, which have been under scrutiny since the beginning of the conflict. The failure to intercept missiles targeting critical infrastructure underscores weaknesses in Russia’s layered defences and intelligence capabilities.
Upgraded Soviet Aircraft: A Game-Changer
The Ukrainian Air Force reportedly employed modified Soviet-era Su-24 aircraft to deliver these strikes. The use of such platforms challenges the earlier narrative that Ukraine’s fleet of these planes had been decimated early in the war. The apparent operational readiness of these aircraft suggests that Ukraine has either successfully repaired or modernised them, potentially with external assistance.
Another possibility is the introduction of Mirage jets promised by France, which could significantly enhance Ukraine’s tactical capabilities. This development may indicate a more robust Ukrainian air power than previously acknowledged by Russian intelligence, forcing Moscow to reassess its assumptions about Kyiv’s military assets.
Propaganda and the “Kedr” Missile
In the wake of Ukraine’s strikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the RS-26 “Kedr” missile, referring to it twice as “Oreshnik,” a slip that has sparked widespread mockery. The missile, reportedly tested in 2023, is presented as a next-generation weapon comparable to the “Topol” system. However, its exact capabilities and deployment status remain unclear.
Western analysts view the announcement as part of a broader propaganda effort to distract from setbacks on the battlefield. Putin’s apparent uncertainty during his announcement, combined with the timing of the missile’s unveiling, suggests that it was intended to project strength amid growing vulnerabilities. This incident, coupled with the mishandling of classified technologies, has further fuelled speculation about the Kremlin’s strategic missteps.
The Fallout for Moscow
The Ukrainian strikes have dealt a psychological blow to Moscow, highlighting that no area is entirely safe from retaliation. Russia’s Ministry of Defence, along with state-controlled media, has struggled to craft a coherent response. The destruction of operational-level command centres undermines Russian military logistics and morale. Furthermore, the exposure of sensitive missile technologies through operational use, as seen with the “Kedr,” poses long-term security risks for Moscow.
Putin’s visible frustration during his recent address reflects the mounting pressure on his administration. Observers note that his appearance mirrored earlier instances when Russian forces suffered major setbacks, such as during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk.
Implications for the Broader Conflict
The strategic implications of Ukraine’s strikes extend beyond immediate military gains. These operations demonstrate Kyiv’s ability to leverage Western technology effectively while adapting its Soviet-era assets to modern warfare. For Russia, the strikes reveal a growing asymmetry in strategic initiative, with Ukraine increasingly dictating the tempo of the conflict.
The developments also highlight the broader geopolitical stakes. The introduction of long-range weapons into the conflict raises the possibility of further escalation. While Ukraine remains cautious about targeting civilian areas, its precision strikes on military assets signal an unwavering commitment to weakening Russian operational capabilities.
Image source: X Account French Aid to Ukraine
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