The Centre for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine has reported a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot near Kotluban, located in the Volgograd region of Russia. However, reports suggest that the targeted weapons were not only of Russian origin but also included Iranian-supplied munitions, potentially including ballistic missiles.
Reports have circulated previously regarding Iran’s supply of ballistic missiles to Russia, with Tehran consistently denying any involvement. The use of Iranian drones by Russian forces to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure has also been subject to similar denials. Despite these claims, recent intelligence suggests a significant shift in Russia’s military strategy, signalling further escalations in the war.
The Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed an attack on the Volgograd region by Ukrainian drones but claimed that all the drones were neutralised. However, videos surfaced on social media showing a large explosion near Kotluban, where the depot storing Iranian-supplied munitions is said to be located. When cross-referencing the footage with the reports from Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation and other sources, the likelihood of a successful strike appears high.
If these reports are confirmed, it represents not just another successful operation by Ukraine but also a testament to the strength of Ukraine’s intelligence operations. The precision of the strike indicates a high level of intelligence gathering, potentially sourced from both Russian and Iranian military operations, as pinpointing the location of such high-value targets would necessitate detailed and sophisticated insider knowledge.
Iranian-Russian Cooperation
The Iran-Russia military alliance, while publicly downplayed by both sides, has grown stronger since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Iran has emerged as a key supplier of military hardware to Russia, despite Tehran’s official denials. The implications of this relationship are far-reaching. If Iranian ballistic missiles are indeed being stored in Russian depots, it signifies a deepening of Iran’s involvement in the conflict.
Tehran has repeatedly denied supplying military aid to Russia, just as it did with reports of drone shipments earlier in the conflict. Nevertheless, mounting evidence, including the targeting of Iranian-supplied drones in Ukraine, challenges these denials.
The Effect on Russian Military Strategy
Recent assessments by British intelligence suggest that Ukraine’s drone strikes have destroyed as much as 30% of Russia’s ammunition, including munitions provided by another key Russian ally, North Korea. The growing shortages of ammunition and munitions are reportedly causing strain within the Russian military command, potentially forcing a reassessment of their battlefield strategy.
With simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts, including Donetsk, the defence of Kursk, and the retention of positions in Kharkiv, Russian forces are stretched thin. The loss of significant supplies of ammunition, particularly those supplied by foreign allies such as Iran and North Korea, complicates Russia’s ability to sustain these offensives. As a result, Moscow may need to reconsider its approach to the war.
Putin’s Winter Strategy
This shortage of munitions could also affect Russia’s plans to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure during the winter of 2024-2025. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly relying on the harsh winter months to pressure Ukraine into surrender by crippling the country’s infrastructure. In his view, a tough winter would erode Ukrainian resistance, pushing the country closer to accepting Russian terms for peace.
However, the depletion of Russian ammunition, exacerbated by recent Ukrainian drone strikes, poses a threat to these plans. As Ukraine continues to strike Russian depots, Putin may be forced to reconsider his winter offensive. While he still appears determined to pressure Ukraine into submission, the loss of munitions — especially those sourced from Iran — could alter the trajectory of his military campaign.
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