US-Led Forces to Leave Iraq by 2026 in Major Strategic Shift

The United States and Iraq are on the verge of finalising a comprehensive agreement for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq. This understanding, according to sources familiar with the matter, would see a gradual reduction of troops, with hundreds leaving by September 2025 and the remainder by the end of 2026.

The plan, while still requiring formal approval from both Washington and Baghdad, represents a significant shift in U.S. military policy in Iraq. The agreement follows months of negotiations between the two states, a process initiated by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in January 2024. Sources indicate that the official announcement, which had been delayed due to regional tensions and other unresolved issues, could be made later this month.

A senior U.S. official confirmed the existence of the agreement, stating, “We have an agreement, it’s now just a question of when to announce it.” The deal, however, may leave room for a limited number of U.S. troops to remain in Iraq in an advisory capacity, as part of a new strategic partnership being discussed between the two nations.

Rationale for Withdrawal

The decision to withdraw comes amid growing concerns within Iraq that the continued presence of U.S. troops is exacerbating instability. Prime Minister al-Sudani has argued that U.S. forces have become a “magnet” for attacks by Iran-backed armed groups operating in Iraq. These groups have repeatedly targeted U.S. forces with rocket and drone strikes, resulting in casualties and prompting U.S. retaliatory actions that have further destabilised the region.

This withdrawal plan is seen as a delicate balancing act for al-Sudani, who is attempting to manage Iraq’s relationships with both Washington and Tehran. The first phase of the drawdown is set to conclude one month before Iraq’s parliamentary elections in October 2025, a timeline that could present a political victory for al-Sudani in the lead-up to the polls.

Phased Troop Withdrawal

The U.S. currently has approximately 2,500 troops stationed in Iraq and an additional 900 in neighbouring Syria. These forces have been part of the U.S.-led coalition, formed in 2014 to combat the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), which at its peak controlled large swathes of territory in both Iraq and Syria.

The withdrawal plan outlines a phased reduction of forces, with all coalition troops departing from the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq by September 2025. The coalition’s presence in Baghdad will also be significantly scaled back during this period. Troops from the U.S. and other coalition nations—including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy—will remain in Erbil, located in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region, until the end of 2026. This presence will support ongoing operations against the remnants of ISIS in Syria.

Despite the territorial defeat of ISIS in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019, the group still poses a threat. However, Iraqi officials have expressed confidence in their ability to handle any future challenges. “Iraq has demonstrated its ability to manage the remaining threat,” said Farhad Alaaldin, foreign affairs adviser to the Iraqi prime minister.

Regional Implications

The U.S. presence in Iraq has always been about more than just countering ISIS. In recent years, U.S. troops have played a strategic role in countering Iranian influence in the region. As tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate, U.S. forces in Iraq have intercepted missiles and drones targeting Israel. This dual role, both in combating terrorism and as a bulwark against Iranian aggression, has made the question of U.S. troop presence a contentious issue in both Washington and Baghdad.

For Iraq, the ongoing military activity between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias has added layers of complexity to an already fragile security situation. Prime Minister al-Sudani, while acknowledging the assistance provided by U.S. forces, has stressed that their presence often leads to uncoordinated military strikes, undermining Iraqi sovereignty.

Strategic Considerations for the U.S.

The proposed two-year timeframe for the withdrawal is seen by U.S. officials as providing a degree of flexibility, should the regional security situation deteriorate. “It gives us some breathing room,” one U.S. official remarked, noting that the timeline allows for potential adjustments if circumstances change.

For the U.S., reducing its military footprint in Iraq marks a significant shift in its Middle Eastern policy. The presence of U.S. forces in Iraq dates back to the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Although the U.S. withdrew its troops in 2011, it returned in 2014 to lead the coalition against ISIS. The drawdown, once completed, will mark the end of a long chapter of direct military involvement in the country.

However, the ongoing discussions around a new advisory role suggest that U.S.-Iraq military cooperation will continue, albeit in a different capacity. The focus is expected to shift toward more traditional bilateral relations in areas such as security, economic development, and cultural exchange.