Who will Benefit from the Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway?

The conclusion of an agreement on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was a great victory for Chinese diplomacy.

After 20 years of negotiations – conducted with varying degrees of success – the parties came to an agreement, however did not announce the details of the deal.

The Kyrgyz authorities have declared that this project will become an important component of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

In the context of a comprehensive strategic partnership in a new era, the creation of a key continental bridge in the Eurasian space is indeed significant.

However, if we address purely the facts of the matter, then there is not so much to say.

What is known specifically?

The fact that the document was signed in Beijing on June 6th, 2024 by the Minister of Transport and Communications of Kyrgyzstan T.Tekebayev, Chairman of the Chinese State Committee for Development and Reform Zheng Shanjie and the Minister of Transport of Uzbekistan I.Makhkamov.

It is known that the development of a feasibility study for the project was completed in 2023, but again, the details remain unknown.

A joint venture is being created for implementation, with the Chinese side’s share amounting to 51%, the remaining two parts – 24.5% each – will go to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

The route along which the railway will pass has been announced: Kashgar-Torugart-Makmal-Jalal-Abad-Andijan.

As part of the agreement, the amount of financing was not announced, but earlier the Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic, A. Zhaparov, suggested that about $ 8 billion would be spent on the construction of the highway.

It is also clear what difficulties the builders will face. The length of the railway will be 486 kilometers, of which 312 km will pass through the territory of Kyrgyzstan. Several tunnels with a total length of 57 kilometers will be built at this distance.

At this stage only general data on the project is known and there are practically no real details.

This causes quite fair bewilderment of experts and outrage of the public. After all, behind every line of the feasibility study, which, by the way, was developed by the Chinese, there are many nuances.

Unclarity what was decided with the track gauge.

This is a fundamental point. In the 20th century, when it was rail transport that served as the main way for the mass transfer of troops, track gauge was of strategic importance.

Therefore, all former post-Soviet countries use the 1520 mm standard, and in China the gauge is 1435 mm. Today, this issue has the same strategic importance, but now in the field of economic security.

If the territory of Kyrgyzstan is crossed by a track that is in no way connected to the local railway network, what will be the benefit of this?

If, as reports suggest, China is pushing for this option, then the dream of connecting the north and south of Kyrgyzstan by rail will come to naught.

In 2011, it was assumed that the Chinese track would reach Tuzbel station in Kyrgyzstan and only there would trains begin to “change shoes”.

And this is on the border with Uzbekistan, the authorities of the Kyrgyz Republic were not satisfied with this option and last year it was discussed that a trans-shipment point from one track to another would be organised near the Kyrgyz village of Makmal.

However, this is not a “best option” either, because in this case the Chinese narrow-gauge railway will run through most of Kyrgyzstan. The village of Makmal is located in the Jalal-Abad region, which borders Uzbekistan.

Why does China not wish to open a trans-shipment point on its border, as it has done, for example, in Kazakhstan’s Khorgos?

Because, as the feasibility study developed by China for itself shows, it is important for China to cover most of Kyrgyzstan with a narrow-gauge railway so that it would be cheaper to export natural resources.

Kyrgyzstan cannot resist this because it does not have its own money for the implementation of the project, and does not want to borrow it (already the external debt to China is already threatening default).

Where there’s gold….

The village of Makmal, to which the Chinese want to lead their track, is known for the fact that the oldest gold deposit of the republic, which was discovered in Soviet times, is located here. The gold mining company stopped its work in 2018 due to unprofitability.

The Kyrgyz government took care of finding an investor and as a result, the Chinese company Manson Group took over the field. Since that moment, gold production has doubled.

And in general, the Jalal-Abad region is very rich in resources, the development of which was hindered by the lack of a railway.

The Terek-Kan, Terek, Kuru-Tegerek, Ishtamberdi, Perevalnoye, and Zhamgyr deposits are being developed here. This is not a complete list, because besides gold in Jalal-Abad there are other minerals: iron ore, gypsum, rare earth metals, uranium.

In other words, China is developing comprehensively. The East Empire needs the railway not only for the shortest access to Afghanistan and the Middle East, but also for its economic expansion into the resource-rich regions of Kyrgyzstan. Who benefits from this?

First of all, China. The second point, which has not yet been deciphered: what is the procedure for financing the project and how appropriate is it in terms of payback?

The analysis of the Center for Political and Legal Studies of Kyrgyzstan shows that in the conditions of the projected load of the railway in the amount of 10-15 million tons of cargo per year, it will take decades for its payback.

In the event of any unforeseen circumstances, these deadlines may be stretched. Experts conclude that China, Uzbekistan and other countries will receive a significant part of the indirect benefits from the launch of the new route.

It is not yet clear how Kyrgyzstan could monetise these benefits. As for the financing of the project, experts are definitely opposed to running up new debts to China. They also do not like the “resources in return for investments” scheme, since this practice has shown itself negatively in other countries of the world.

They see the best option as giving the railway a concession to a consortium. But even this option will mean that the road will serve anyone, but not the economy of Kyrgyzstan.

In addition, the cost of the project may increase many times.

Instead of pulling the route across the plains, through Naryn region to Balykchy, where there is a railway to Bishkek, the Chinese will build a railway in the Tien Shan mountain system, punching 57 kilometers of tunnels, and this is very difficult, expensive and even dangerous.

In addition to the difficult terrain here, landslides and avalanches await at every step. Of the 70 types of natural elements shaking the planet, about 20 are actively manifesting themselves in Kyrgyzstan.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic, 105 thousand square kilometers are affected by avalanches, which is 53% of the entire territory of the republic.

There are about 30 thousand avalanche-prone foci in the country, snow masses fall from the rocks from 800 to 1.5 thousand times a year.

In addition, Kyrgyzstan is suffering enormous losses due to landslide processes.

No less than 15 thousand square kilometres are exposed to risk of landslide. At the same time, there are more than 4.5 thousand landslide foci, of which 1 thousand 186 pose a threat to 543 settlements, 321 economic and infrastructure facilities.

At the same time, natural disasters are becoming more frequent every year in what is now a global trend related to climate warming. At the same time, independent experts consider the work of the Kyrgyz government to prevent natural disasters ineffective.

The head of the Green Energy Foundation and a member of the Board of the Green Alliance of Kyrgyzstan, A.Sultangazieva, emphasises that “… plans, actions, emergency prevention programs are implemented by at most 20%.

“I personally did the monitoring myself. Everything remains on paper. To carry out the most difficult construction work in these conditions is a big gamble.

“But China, apparently, will not be very upset if the road to Uzbekistan ends halfway.

“It will pay off its costs even if it just paves the way to the mineral deposits. Unlike Kyrgyzstan, whose railway network will not be intelligently connected to the new highway and will not allow it to realise its transit potential, even if the road leads to the world market.”

When placed under scrutiny the statements of the Kyrgyz authorities about the continental bridge may appear naive, unless, of course, the main goal is to sell natural resources to partners from China.

This scenario appears logical and understandable, but one that would be likely to be expounded publicly by the government.

Indeed, Kyrgyzstan is already very wary of China’s economic expansion, and the resultant influx of migrant labour into Kyrgyzstan.

Newcomers take jobs away from locals, workers from China, according to official data, make up 67.8% of the total number of foreign migrant workers.

According to the Chinese Embassy in Kyrgyzstan, about 20,000 Chinese citizens live and work in the republic.

But experts in the field of migration believe that the real figure is many times higher. There is probably no need to explain what such a situation threatens.

Main Image: By Сергей Болашенко – ПОЕЗДКА БИШКЕК — АЛТЫНКОЛЬ — ТАШКЕНТ — ЗАРАФШАН, 2016 ГОД, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=49026163