In a dramatic turn of events, the Assad regime, which ruled Syria for over half a century, has collapsed following an 11-day offensive by opposition forces. The swift campaign, led by the coalition Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks a pivotal moment in Syrian history, raising questions about the country’s future and the broader implications for the region.
A Rapid Campaign
The offensive began on 27 November in the Idlib province, a stronghold of opposition forces. HTS, a coalition of jihadist factions with roots in groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, quickly gained momentum. By the third day, they captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and continued their march south. Strategic locations such as Hama and Homs fell in rapid succession, leaving the Syrian military in disarray.
The final blow came in Damascus, where opposition forces entered the capital, occupying government buildings overnight. Reports indicate that President Bashar al-Assad fled the country as the Syrian military collapsed, offering little resistance. For a regime that maintained control through decades of civil unrest and foreign interventions, the speed of its demise is unprecedented.
The Role of Foreign Actors
Iran and Russia, key allies of the Assad regime, appear to have stepped back during the final stages of the offensive. There are indications that Iran negotiated safe passage for its forces, avoiding direct confrontation with the opposition. Russia, which had bolstered Assad’s position since its intervention in 2015, remained conspicuously inactive during the offensive.
This retreat highlights a significant shift in the regional power dynamics. For Iran, Syria was a vital link in its “Shia Crescent,” connecting Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The loss of Syria as a foothold could weaken Iran’s influence in the Middle East.
Russia’s priorities may also be evolving. Speculation abounds about whether Moscow will negotiate with the new authorities to retain its naval base in Tartus, its strategic access point to the Mediterranean. However, the collapse of the regime raises doubts about the long-term viability of Russia’s presence in the region.
Internal and Regional Implications
The fall of the Assad regime leaves Syria fragmented. Kurdish forces in the northeast, backed by the United States, have expanded their territories, seeking greater autonomy. Meanwhile, remnants of the Islamic State have resurfaced in the eastern deserts, potentially setting the stage for renewed conflict.
Israel, which has maintained a cautious stance, is closely monitoring developments. The Israeli Defence Forces have bolstered their presence along the Golan Heights, creating a buffer zone to deter potential threats. Reports suggest that Druze and Kurdish groups have sought Israeli protection, presenting an opportunity for Israel to forge new alliances.
Turkey’s role in supporting opposition forces further complicates the picture. Ankara’s backing of HTS signals its intent to shape Syria’s post-Assad future, potentially at odds with the ambitions of other regional powers.
The End of an Era
The Assad regime, led initially by Hafez al-Assad and later by his son Bashar, held power since 1970. Under Hafez, Syria aligned with the Soviet Union and pursued an aggressive foreign policy, including the occupation of Lebanon and repeated clashes with Israel. The regime’s authoritarian grip continued under Bashar, who faced mounting dissent during the Arab Spring of 2011.
The ensuing civil war saw Assad rely heavily on foreign support to maintain his rule. Iranian militias, Hezbollah fighters, and Russian airpower turned the tide in his favour by 2015. However, this external dependency masked the regime’s internal fragility, which became evident as opposition forces advanced unopposed in recent weeks.
A Fragile Transition
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime represents a clear victory for the opposition, but the future remains unpredictable. HTS has announced plans to establish a new government, yet Syria’s fragmented society and the presence of competing factions present substantial obstacles.
The interim government, under Syria’s prime minister, has committed to facilitating a peaceful transition of power—an uncommon development in civil conflict. However, the involvement of Kurdish forces, Islamist groups, and external powers raises significant doubts about the long-term stability of any new political arrangement.
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