The ongoing developments in Syria suggest the disintegration of the Syrian Arab Republic, a process that has accelerated significantly in recent months. As the Assad regime loses its grip, Syria faces an unprecedented transformation, with consequences likely to reshape the Middle East.
Rapid Decline of Assad’s Rule
President Bashar al-Assad’s government is now confined to Damascus, struggling to maintain control amidst widespread defections and the collapse of the Syrian military. Entire brigades, such as the Russian-backed 5th Corps, have disintegrated under the weight of internal corruption and external pressure. The once-feared Syrian army has ceased to exist as a cohesive force, replaced by fragmented groups, some aligning with opposition forces.
Assad’s last-minute measures, such as marginal pay increases for military personnel, have proven insufficient to stem the tide of desertions. Many soldiers have joined opposition forces or surrendered key positions without resistance. As rebels advance south from Daraa and north from Idlib, Damascus is effectively encircled, with its supply lines to the Mediterranean, southern borders, and eastern territories severed.
Opposition Advances and Rebel Unity
The opposition’s progress has been characterised by minimal resistance, highlighting the regime’s collapse. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has emerged as a dominant force in northern Syria. Its stated aim is the complete overthrow of Assad’s regime, a goal that now seems within reach.
In the south, the strategic capture of Daraa—the city where the Syrian uprising began in 2011—symbolises a full-circle moment in the Syrian conflict. Control of Daraa and neighbouring towns enables rebels to cut off Damascus from Jordanian supply routes, further isolating the regime. Jordan, wary of the escalating chaos, has closed its borders, amplifying the region’s instability.
Kurdish Gains and Potential Statehood
Meanwhile, Kurdish forces, operating under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have solidified their hold on eastern Syria. Their advancements raise the possibility of establishing an independent Kurdish state—a long-cherished goal for the Kurdish people. Backed by the United States, the Kurds have leveraged their role in combating ISIS to gain international support, positioning themselves as a pivotal actor in the post-Assad landscape.
Regional Players and Geopolitical Shifts
The swift collapse of the Assad regime has spurred foreign powers to recalibrate their positions. Russia and Iran, Assad’s primary allies, are hastily evacuating military personnel, advisers, and equipment from key bases such as Tartus and Hmeimim. Moscow is reportedly relocating advanced weapons systems, such as the S-300, to prevent them from falling into rebel hands. Tehran, meanwhile, is withdrawing its forces to Iraq, aiming to preserve its remaining influence in the region.
Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been accused of covertly orchestrating rebel advancements. Erdogan’s support for opposition groups aligns with his broader goal of curbing Kurdish ambitions and expanding Turkish influence in northern Syria. The conflict has also prompted Israel to bolster its northern defences, with discussions underway regarding the potential establishment of a buffer zone along the Golan Heights.
Implications for the Middle East
Syria’s fragmentation marks the end of its role as a unified state. The country is likely to split into several entities: a Sunni-dominated territory under rebel control, a potential Kurdish state in the east, and possibly smaller enclaves under local or external governance. This disintegration also signals the demise of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which relied heavily on Syrian territory for logistical and strategic support.
For Israel, the power vacuum offers both opportunities and challenges. While the weakening of Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah is a strategic gain, the rise of jihadist factions near its borders necessitates vigilance. Israeli airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons facilities highlight concerns about such arsenals falling into extremist hands.
The Road Ahead
The international community faces the daunting task of addressing the aftermath of Syria’s collapse. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent call for a political resolution underscores the challenges of forging stability in a fragmented Syria. However, with rebel forces on the verge of capturing Damascus, the prospect of negotiated settlements appears increasingly remote.
As the dust settles, Syria’s transformation will redefine Middle Eastern geopolitics. The departure of Russian and Iranian forces marks the end of their influence in the region, while Turkey, the United States, and Israel brace for the consequences of a post-Assad Syria.
The coming months will be crucial in shaping the region’s future, with the possibility of further fragmentation or stabilisation hinging on the actions of local and global stakeholders. One thing is certain: the Syrian Arab Republic, as the world once knew it, no longer exists.
