Spanning approximately 523 kilometres, this railway will connect Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang province to Andijan in eastern Uzbekistan, cutting through Kyrgyzstan’s mountainous landscape.
The project is being hailed by officials as a game-changer for Central Asia, with claims that it will reduce freight transit times between China and Europe by up to eight days and shorten the overall route by roughly 900 kilometres.
The CKU railway, with an estimated cost of $8 billion, will see $4.7 billion allocated to the Kyrgyz section alone. Construction is slated to begin in late 2024.
Leaders in China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have framed the CKU railway as a transformative venture, projecting it as a catalyst that will elevate Central Asia into a key Eurasian transport hub.
They argue that the railway will spur trade, foster economic cooperation, and provide essential infrastructure to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan—two landlocked nations with limited access to global markets. C
hina views this project as a strategic alternative to existing routes that traverse Kazakhstan and Russia, offering a faster connection to European and Middle Eastern markets.
For Uzbekistan, the railway is seen as an opportunity to diversify its export routes, while Kyrgyzstan is expecting to gain from increased transit fees and improved access to international markets.
China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway Project (source: The Third Pole)
However, despite the high-profile endorsements and promises of significant benefits, the CKU railway faces numerous risks and challenges. These range from serious financial concerns to environmental hazards, geopolitical implications, and the technical complexities of building a railway through one of the most geologically unstable regions in the world.
Economic Viability and Financial Risks One of the most pressing concerns regarding the CKU railway is its economic viability, particularly for Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz section of the railway, which will cost around $4.7 billion, represents a staggering financial burden for a country with a GDP of just over $9 billion. Kyrgyzstan plans to borrow $2.35 billion from China to fund its portion of the project, which will add significantly to its national debt—currently over 50% of GDP.
The country’s limited export potential and fierce competition from established transit routes in Kazakhstan and Russia mean it may struggle to generate sufficient revenue from transit fees to repay this enormous debt.
The risks of falling into a so-called “debt trap” are very real. Countries such as Sri Lanka and Kenya have already experienced the perils of becoming overly indebted to China through BRI projects.
Sri Lanka, for instance, had to lease its Hambantota Port to China for 99 years after failing to repay a $1.5 billion loan, while Kenya has been saddled with billions in debt from its stalled railway project. Similar scenarios could unfold in Kyrgyzstan, raising the possibility that the country may eventually be forced to cede control over strategic assets to China if it struggles to meet its loan obligations.
Environmental and Technical Challenges
Beyond financial concerns, the CKU railway faces daunting environmental and technical challenges. The railway is set to pass through some of Central Asia’s most mountainous and seismically active regions. Kyrgyzstan, in particular, experiences thousands of earthquakes each year, and over the past century and a half, it has witnessed more than ten earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 7.0.
The high seismic risk presents a significant threat to the viability of the railway, as earthquakes could damage vital infrastructure, causing costly delays and necessitating expensive repairs. The construction itself will be complex and costly, involving the creation of 41 tunnels, 81 bridges, and 18 stations.
One of the most significant technical hurdles is the incompatibility of railway gauges. China uses a standard gauge of 1,435 mm, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, like other former Soviet republics, use a broader gauge of 1,520 mm.
This discrepancy will necessitate either the transshipment of goods or the replacement of wheelsets at the border, both of which are logistically challenging and expensive. This adds to the operational complexity and costs of the railway, potentially undermining the economic benefits it promises.
Geopolitical and Security Concerns
Geopolitically, the CKU railway is a key element in China’s broader strategy to expand its influence across Central Asia and beyond. By providing an alternative route to Europe and the Middle East, China seeks to bypass the existing transport corridors through Kazakhstan and Russia, thereby reducing its reliance on these countries and lowering transit tariffs.
However, this also raises concerns about China’s growing dominance in the region, as the Belt and Road Initiative has long been viewed as a tool for expanding Beijing’s soft power and economic control over key infrastructure globally. The CKU railway also raises serious security concerns.
The route will pass through regions notorious for drug trafficking, particularly the “Golden Crescent,” a major opium-producing area that includes parts of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The porous borders and high levels of corruption in Central Asia make it likely that the railway could become a new route for smuggling drugs and other illicit goods, further complicating the region’s already fragile security environment.
The railway could also provide new avenues for extremist and terrorist groups to move across borders. Xinjiang, the Chinese province where the railway begins, has long been a flashpoint for separatist movements and Islamist extremism. The CKU railway could facilitate the movement of militants and weapons into Xinjiang, exacerbating existing security challenges in China’s volatile western region.
Questionable Benefits for Kyrgyzstan
For Kyrgyzstan, the supposed benefits of the CKU railway are questionable. While the railway will improve transit connectivity, it is unlikely that Kyrgyzstan will see substantial economic gains.
The country’s small economy and limited export potential mean that it will primarily serve as a transit point for goods moving between China and Uzbekistan, rather than a significant trade partner itself. Although this may generate some revenue from transit fees, the stiff competition from Kazakhstan and Russia, both of which have more established and efficient transit routes, makes it unlikely that Kyrgyzstan will reap large financial rewards from the project.
Moreover, Kyrgyzstan’s heavy reliance on Chinese loans, combined with the massive financial burden of the project, leaves the country vulnerable to Chinese economic and political pressure.
Should it struggle to repay its debts, Kyrgyzstan could find itself in a position similar to that of Sri Lanka, where strategic assets may have to be relinquished to China as part of debt restructuring negotiations.
Uzbekistan: The Real Beneficiary
In contrast to Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan is likely to be the primary beneficiary of the CKU railway. As a more export-oriented economy, Uzbekistan stands to gain significantly from having a direct railway link to China, bypassing the slower and more congested routes through Kazakhstan. This will reduce the cost of transporting goods to and from China, enhancing Uzbekistan’s trade competitiveness.
Furthermore, the railway will provide Uzbekistan with access to new markets in South Asia and the Middle East via the Trans-Afghan corridor, further diversifying its export options. For Uzbekistan, the CKU railway represents a crucial opportunity to bolster its role as a regional transport hub, strengthening its position in Central Asian trade networks.
Access to the Indian Ocean and negative impact on India
A significant geopolitical implication of the CKU railway is its potential to enhance China’s access to the Indian Ocean via the Trans-Afghan corridor and Pakistan. This connection, which links China’s overland routes to the Arabian Sea, aligns with Beijing’s strategic objectives under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a critical component of the BRI.
The CKU railway’s eventual linkage to the Gwadar port in Pakistan, a Chinese-developed deepsea port on the Arabian Sea, could offer China a critical overland route to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the geopolitically sensitive Strait of Malacca.
From India’s perspective, this development is highly concerning. The growing presence of Chinese infrastructure projects in its immediate neighbourhood, particularly in Pakistan, is seen by India as a direct challenge to its dominance in the Indian Ocean region.
The Gwadar port, located just 400 km from India’s western coastline, is viewed as a potential Chinese naval outpost, raising fears of encirclement. This perception is exacerbated by the so-called “string of pearls” strategy, in which China is believed to be establishing a network of ports and military facilities to encircle and counter Indian influence in the region.
Economically, the CKU railway, when connected to the Indian Ocean via Pakistan, could shift trade dynamics in the region, allowing China to exert greater influence over key maritime routes that are vital to India’s trade and energy supply.
India’s traditional trade links with Central Asia could also be weakened as China establishes more direct transport corridors through Central Asia to the Indian Ocean. In response, India has been investing in its own regional connectivity projects, such as the development of the Chabahar port in Iran, which is seen as a counterbalance to China’s influence in Pakistan’s Gwadar port.
However, India’s efforts to match China’s BRI projects have been slower and less expansive, raising concerns that China’s growing presence in the region could undermine India’s strategic and economic interests in the long term.
What It Means Going Forward
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, while touted as a transformational infrastructure initiative, is fraught with significant challenges and risks.
Financially, Kyrgyzstan is at risk of falling into a Chinese debt trap, while the environmental and technical complexities of the project raise concerns about its long-term viability.
Geopolitically, the railway enhances China’s influence in Central Asia and potentially increases security risks by creating new pathways for drug trafficking and terrorism.
While Uzbekistan stands to gain economically, Kyrgyzstan’s benefits are far less certain. Meanwhile, China’s enhanced access to the Indian Ocean poses strategic challenges for India, further intensifying competition between the two regional powers in Central and South Asia.
An additional negative aspect is that the railway project will greatly affect the local environment. The growing population and water scarcity in the region are already causing concern to environmentalists.
And the construction of this route will only worsen the situation and may cause an outflow of population from densely populated Central Asia to Europe, increasing migration pressure on the continent.
Image source: railjournal.com
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