German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces growing resistance within his own ranks and among Social Democratic (SPD) partners over flagship reforms on pensions and military service, raising doubts about his ability to deliver a programme designed to revive the economy and bolster the armed forces.
The coalition, assembled five months ago after the collapse of a three-party government, holds a slim majority and has struggled to impose discipline, heightening concern that instability seen in France could be mirrored in Europe’s largest economy.
The immediate flashpoints are a pensions package and the design of a new military service model. A youth faction within Merz’s conservatives has threatened to withhold support for a pensions bill that would freeze benefits through 2031 while incentivising longer working lives. Detractors argue it entrenches obligations without safeguarding long-term financing as the population ages, leaving younger cohorts exposed to rising costs. The internal dissent underscores the risks of secret ballots in the Bundestag, where the coalition’s narrow arithmetic leaves little room for defections.
On defence, the coalition is divided between an SPD preference for a voluntary system and conservative demands to retain a pathway to conscription. Senior lawmakers floated a “lottery” mechanism to call up men if voluntary recruitment fell short. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius rejected the draft as a “lazy compromise”, prompting the last-minute cancellation of a joint press conference and casting doubt on the promised 2026 start date. The dispute has stalled work on a law intended to underpin an expansion of the Bundeswehr as Berlin responds to heightened Russian threats and NATO force goals.
The backdrop is a contracting economy and a coalition still bedding in. Analysts point to distrust within and between the parties, ideological divergences, limited governing experience in key portfolios, and the scale of Germany’s structural challenges. Merz’s critics say he has taken a hands-off approach to management of internal disputes, including a row over a constitutional court appointment that eroded SPD confidence. Supporters counter that fiscal room created by a pre-coalition spending package remains available to pursue growth-oriented tax and investment measures once legislative bottlenecks ease.
Political pressure is intensifying. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has moved ahead of the conservative bloc in several national polls, capitalising on coalition infighting and voter frustration. Surveys through late summer and early autumn showed AfD in first place, with the CDU/CSU sliding and the SPD also losing ground. Merz’s approval ratings have fallen sharply since June, with recent readings around the high-20s, placing him well behind predecessors at the same stage of their terms. Party figures warn that protracted disputes over pensions and military service reform risk further strengthening AfD ahead of state contests.
The military service debate has taken on added resonance. Germany suspended conscription in 2011 and has struggled to meet personnel targets since. Pistorius initially advanced a voluntary six-month model aimed at boosting reserves and training capacity; conservatives have pressed for a firmer mechanism to guarantee numbers, hence the lottery fallback. The minister’s rejection of alterations not cleared with his department has complicated coordination but he has said the legislative process should continue, with an eye to implementation in early 2026 if consensus can be rebuilt.
Comparisons with France’s political turbulence have become more frequent as Berlin’s coalition strains. While new compromises are still expected on both bills, the pathway looks messy and time-consuming. Each delay chips away at trust between partners and narrows the window for Merz to pass the core of his programme: pension sustainability measures, labour-market incentives, and defence reforms to meet alliance commitments. The chancellery must now stabilise the legislative timetable, firm up vote counts in the Bundestag, and contain intra-party rebellions if it is to prevent a narrative of drift taking hold and avert further gains for the AfD.
Foreign policy successes have not offset domestic doubts. Merz’s active diplomacy — including efforts to manage relations with Washington and support for Ukraine — has prompted some in Berlin to call him an “Außenkanzler”. However, shifting public focus back to domestic delivery now appears central. The stakes are clear: a credible agreement on pensions and a defensible, legally robust service model would signal control and restore momentum; another public breakdown could harden perceptions of dysfunction and complicate the coalition’s broader economic agenda.
