EU energy ministers have agreed a plan to wind down Russian gas imports to zero by 1 January 2028, advancing a central plank of the bloc’s strategy to cut energy ties with Moscow.
The decision, taken at a meeting in Luxembourg on 20 October, sets out a staged approach covering new and existing contracts and now proceeds to negotiations with the European Parliament.
Under the Council’s agreed position, EU buyers would be barred from signing new Russian gas import contracts from 1 January 2026. Short-term contracts concluded before 17 June 2025 could run until 17 June 2026, while long-term contracts would expire by 1 January 2028. The phased timetable is designed to manage market adjustments and storage cycles while signalling a clear end-date for Russian pipeline gas and associated arrangements.
The measure is part of the REPowerEU roadmap launched after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which aimed to reduce the EU’s exposure to Russian energy and address supply risks highlighted by repeated reductions in gas flows. Ministers agreed the Council’s negotiating mandate by qualified majority, meaning a decision did not require unanimity. The text includes targeted flexibilities for landlocked states, notably Hungary and Slovakia, reflecting infrastructure constraints and past objections raised by these countries.
Although the Council’s stance marks a significant step, it is not the final law. The European Parliament must adopt its position and enter talks with member states before the regulation can take effect. MEPs last week backed a parallel line advocating additional restrictions, including limits on temporary storage of Russian-origin gas from 2026 and measures to close any circumvention routes, indicating that inter-institutional negotiations may focus on detailed scope and enforcement.
The Council’s move comes as the EU weighs further sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). A separate package under discussion would ban Russian LNG imports a year earlier, from 1 January 2027. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday that the sanctions package could be approved as early as this week, signalling a tightening of the timetable for seaborne supplies even as pipeline contracts unwind under the new regulation.
EU reliance on Russian gas has already fallen sharply since 2021. Russia accounted for about 12% of EU gas imports in the second quarter of 2025, down from around 45% before the full-scale invasion, according to Eurostat and other official data. The decline reflects a combination of lower consumption, increased LNG purchases from alternative suppliers, and higher pipeline deliveries from Norway and Algeria. Nonetheless, some member states continue to receive Russian volumes, including via LNG terminals in Belgium and France and through pipeline routes such as TurkStream serving Central and South-Eastern Europe.
Ministers framed the phase-out as an energy security and foreign policy measure intended to reduce revenue streams available to the Kremlin. The Council noted that the regulation is a “central element” of the EU’s plan to end dependency on Russian energy and to prevent a recurrence of market disruption experienced in 2022–23. In addition to termination dates for contracts, the proposal sets out compliance and transition provisions to give operators and national authorities legal clarity ahead of the 2026–2028 window.
The qualified-majority endorsement followed months of debate over timelines and exemptions. Slovakia and Hungary had previously resisted faster measures and linked their positions to wider sanctions discussions, contributing to delays in earlier packages. The agreed text provides tailored allowances for landlocked systems while holding the 2028 end-date firm for long-term contracts, aiming to avoid distortions in the internal market as infrastructure projects and reverse-flow capabilities expand.
Market effects will hinge on the pace of implementation and the outcome of Parliament–Council talks. If adopted as proposed, the ban on new contracts from January 2026 would constrain forward procurement strategies, while the mid-2026 deadline for short-term agreements would accelerate a shift in hub trading patterns. The prospective 2027 LNG embargo, if approved, would further tighten supply options and increase the salience of demand-side measures and storage coordination ahead of winter seasons.
Brussels will also contend with enforcement challenges, including monitoring of contract roll-overs, ship-to-ship transfers in LNG trades, and re-labelling or re-routing practices through intermediaries. Recent analyses have highlighted the growth of a “shadow fleet” in Russia’s oil trade and, to a lesser extent, potential gas market circumvention risks—issues EU institutions say they intend to address in forthcoming packages and guidance.
Risk in European Waters: The Shadow Fleet, Sanctions Evasion and Safety Gaps
