The election caps off a year of political turbulence in Croatia, with voters heading to the polls for the third time in 2024, following parliamentary elections in April and European Parliament elections in June.
Zoran Milanović’s Divisive Leadership
Andrej Plenković
Milanović, a former prime minister and member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has made his mark as a sharp critic of the EU and NATO. Throughout his presidency, he has clashed with Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, leader of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). Milanović has blocked several government initiatives, including Croatia’s participation in NATO’s programme to train Ukrainian soldiers, and has criticised Western sanctions on Russia.
Domestically, Milanović has capitalised on public dissatisfaction with corruption scandals involving the HDZ. More than 30 HDZ ministers have resigned or been dismissed under Plenković’s leadership due to allegations of corruption, providing Milanović with ample ammunition to attack the government. He has also positioned himself as an opponent of immigration, describing it as Croatia’s top challenge, and accused Plenković of being “remote-controlled by Brussels.”
Despite his contentious policies, Milanović remains the most popular politician in Croatia, with his populist style resonating with voters sceptical of international entanglements and critical of the EU’s influence.
The Challenger: Dragan Primorac
Dragan Primorac, the HDZ candidate and former Minister of Science, trails Milanović significantly, with exit polls placing
Dragan Primorac
him at 19.29%. Primorac has run on a pro-European platform, advocating for stronger integration with the EU and continued support for Ukraine. However, his campaign has been overshadowed by scandals within the HDZ, including the recent arrest of Health Minister Vili Beroš on corruption charges.
Primorac’s lack of charisma has further hindered his ability to challenge Milanović effectively. Political analysts, such as Ivan Grdešić of Libertas International University, have described him as “too sophisticated” to appeal to a broad electorate. His close association with the embattled HDZ leadership has also raised concerns among voters, potentially eroding his support base.
A Ceremonial Role with Significant Influence
While Croatia’s presidency is largely ceremonial, Milanović has demonstrated the role’s capacity to influence key areas of foreign and defence policy. His re-election would likely signal continued opposition to NATO’s initiatives in Croatia and strained relations with the EU. Milanović’s critical stance on military aid to Ukraine and his scepticism of Western sanctions against Russia have positioned him as an outlier among European leaders.
In contrast, Primorac and other candidates, such as Ivana Kekin of the Možemo! party and independent Marija Selak Raspudić, have advocated for closer alignment with NATO and the EU. However, exit polls suggest that neither Kekin nor Raspudić, who polled at 8.76% and 9.27% respectively, will advance to a potential runoff.
Broader Implications
The election reflects Croatia’s deeply divided political landscape, with Milanović and Plenković representing opposing visions for the country’s future. Milanović’s populist rhetoric and scepticism of EU and NATO policies have tapped into growing Euroscepticism among segments of the electorate, while Plenković’s pro-European stance has been undermined by his government’s corruption scandals.
Should Milanović secure a first-round victory, it would consolidate his position as a dominant figure in Croatian politics, enabling him to continue challenging Plenković and shaping the country’s foreign policy. However, if the election proceeds to a second round on 12 January, it could provide an opportunity for opposition forces to rally against his controversial presidency.
Read also:
Corruption in Croatia: Thousands Rally Demanding Prompt Elections
