The European Union plans to announce its 16th sanctions package against Russia on 24 February 2025, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The measures, expected to expand existing economic restrictions, will also target individuals and entities engaged in hybrid warfare, including those involved in propaganda campaigns undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.
A Comprehensive Response to Russian Aggression
Diplomatic sources in Brussels, as reported by Welt am Sonntag, indicate that the new sanctions package will focus on sectors of the Russian economy that have evaded significant penalties. The measures aim to curb Moscow’s ability to sustain its military operations and destabilising activities in Ukraine.
The package will include penalties for individuals and organisations identified as Kremlin propagandists. These actors have played a critical role in spreading disinformation and justifying Russia’s aggression, which the EU considers a direct threat to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Hybrid Warfare in Focus
The sanctions mark a shift in the EU’s strategy by addressing hybrid warfare tactics, which include disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and espionage. Russian state and state-affiliated actors have been accused of destabilising democratic institutions and creating divisions within the EU. A recent report by the European External Action Service (EEAS) highlights the increasing prevalence of Russian disinformation campaigns targeting EU member states, including Germany.
However, identifying and attributing hybrid attacks to specific individuals remains challenging. Diplomats have acknowledged that these difficulties could delay the finalisation of certain measures within the sanctions package.
Divisions Within the EU
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has resisted new sanctions, citing a preference to wait until after the potential inauguration of Donald Trump as US President in January 2025. This position has sparked criticism from other EU leaders, who argue that delaying sanctions would undermine the bloc’s credibility and solidarity with Ukraine.
Despite Orbán’s objections, EU diplomats are confident that the sanctions will be finalised in February. The package is seen as a “clear signal” to Moscow that the EU remains united in its opposition to Russian aggression.
Building on Previous Measures
The EU’s sanctions regime has expanded significantly since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The most recent package, adopted in December 2024, targeted 52 vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet,” accused of circumventing international restrictions. These ships were banned from accessing EU ports and services.
In December 2024, the EU also imposed its first sanctions explicitly addressing hybrid warfare. These targeted individuals and organisations linked to cyberattacks and destabilising activities, reflecting a broader approach to countering non-conventional threats.
The 16th sanctions package is expected to build on these measures, potentially introducing restrictions on dual-use technologies and critical exports to Russia.
Broader Strategic Context
The timing of the sanctions highlights the EU’s dedication to advancing a robust foreign policy agenda under the newly elected European Parliament. Prominent leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and former High Representative Josep Borrell, have consistently emphasised the critical need for a unified stance in confronting Russian aggression.
The measures are also designed to complement international efforts to sustain support for Ukraine. The EU has been a key player in providing financial, military, and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv since the invasion began.
Challenges and Future Implications
While the proposed sanctions represent a significant step forward, enforcement remains a critical challenge. Ensuring compliance across all member states and closing existing loopholes will be essential for the measures to be effective.
Additionally, the EU faces difficulties in attributing hybrid attacks to specific individuals. Extensive coordination between member states, intelligence agencies, and international partners will be required to overcome these obstacles.
Despite these challenges, EU officials view the new sanctions as a milestone in their efforts to counter Russian aggression. As one senior diplomat stated, “This package is not just a response to past actions; it’s a statement of our commitment to uphold sovereignty and international law.”
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