On the eve of Georgia’s parliamentary elections, tensions are at an all-time high, with growing concerns that the results could plunge the country into unrest and violence.
Set for Saturday, October 26th, this pivotal election may determine Georgia’s alignment on the world stage, either securing its European trajectory or pushing it firmly into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, faces pressure to respect the election’s outcome if it loses, echoing a precedent set in 2012, when then-President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) ceded power peacefully. Today, however, many are uncertain if Georgian Dream will follow suit. In a politically charged climate, with the influence of Russian media and disinformation campaigns alleged by observers, the stakes are higher than ever.
Russia’s interest in these elections is unmistakable, with analysts suggesting the Kremlin aims to disrupt Georgia’s pro-European course and stir civil unrest, dragging Georgia deeper into its influence.
Escalating Political Tensions
Despite a calm start to the campaign, recent weeks have seen a significant rise in political friction. With election day approaching, Georgia’s typically tumultuous political atmosphere has intensified. The Georgian electorate is more mobilised than it has been in over a decade, motivated by the possibility of steering the country back towards a Western-oriented path.
Notably, Georgian Dream’s campaign tactics have sparked political debate, with accusations of Russian-style propaganda techniques and divisive narratives. Promises of a swift recovery of Russian-occupied territories—Abkhazia and South Ossetia—have been questioned, with critics arguing that the government is making empty promises without detailing feasible methods to reclaim these regions.
Shifting Support and Public Discontent
Recent polling data from Edison Research and SAVANTA suggests that Georgian Dream’s support is hovering around 34-35%, a figure that falls short of the threshold required to secure a parliamentary majority. This is partly due to recent electoral reforms, eliminating the majoritarian component that previously benefited the ruling party.
According to the polls, four main opposition coalitions are predicted to collectively garner around 52-53% of the vote, setting the stage for a potential coalition government if they can reach a consensus post-election.
The opposition’s pro-European stance, highlighted by a large rally titled “Georgia Chooses the European Union,” drew crowds not seen in years, indicating a substantial base of support. In response, Georgian Dream mobilised public sector employees for a counter-rally, but the distinction between these two events—one spontaneous, the other enforced—has drawn criticism within the country.
Claims of Election Manipulation
Georgian Dream has rebuffed the findings of recognised polling agencies, instead citing data from Gorby, a polling organisation with a contentious reputation. Gorby projects a commanding 60.2% victory for Georgian Dream, alongside claims that only two opposition coalitions would meet the electoral threshold. These figures contrast sharply with international assessments, raising concerns over potential election manipulation.
In a recent address, Georgian Dream’s founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, appeared uncharacteristically tense, hinting at his awareness of public frustration with the current regime. Ivanishvili, who retains significant influence, emphasised that his party remains essential for Georgia’s stability, dismissing opposition parties as destabilising forces.
His remarks reflected a mixture of self-assurance and disdain towards former colleagues turned opposition leaders, such as ex-Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, whom he labelled disloyal and corrupt.
Ivanishvili’s statements, peppered with claims of record economic growth and low unemployment under his party’s rule, were tempered by grievances regarding his personal financial situation, which he claims has been restricted due to alleged Western interference.
The Role of President Salome Zurabishvili
As Georgian Dream navigates internal challenges, President Salome Zurabishvili has emerged as a figurehead for the opposition, advocating for a pro-European future. She has fostered unprecedented unity among opposition factions, culminating in the signing of the “Georgian Charter,” which outlines a shared vision for the country’s governance post-election.
This document emphasises democratic reforms and a commitment to European integration, placing Zurabishvili in a crucial role as a mediator between the factions.
Names circulating as potential prime ministers under a Zurabishvili-aligned coalition include Nika Gilauri, a former prime minister, Gela Bezhuashvili, ex-foreign minister, and Victor Kipiani, head of the think tank Geocase. The final choice depends on the election results and whether the opposition can solidify their majority.
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