Gunvor: Russia Loses Nearly 600 Thousand Barrels a Day Due to Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

In a recent report by Gunvor, and as reported by Bloomberg, it was revealed that approximately 600 thousand barrels of daily oil refining capacity in Russia were knocked offline as a result of strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries.

According to the assessment provided by Torbjorn Tornqvist, the CEO of the international energy group Gunvor Group Ltd., these strikes targeted several plants in Russia, some of which are situated close to its borders.

Consequently, futures for diesel fuel saw a fourth consecutive session rise, while gasoline futures increased for the sixth consecutive session.

“This is significant because it will immediately impact distillate exports,” stated Tornqvist at the CERAWeek conference by S&P Global in Houston on Monday. “It is likely to reduce distillate exports by a couple of hundred thousand barrels, so for me, this is a distillate issue,” he added.

Gunvor was a major trader of Russian oil prior to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but it ceased trading shortly after the onset of the major conflict.

Meanwhile, according to estimates by JPMorgan Chase, Ukrainian attacks have disrupted approximately 900 thousand barrels per day of Russian refining capacity.

The restoration of these capacities may take “several weeks, if not months,” and the explosions are expected to add around $4 per barrel in risk premiums to global oil prices, analysts note.

According to Tornqvist, the crude oil markets are generally balanced and fairly priced, adding that U.S. supplies are likely to increase by approximately 700-800 thousand barrels per day this year, which is roughly half the increase seen in 2023.

However, he stated that the overall increase in supplies from non-OPEC countries this year is unlikely to change significantly.

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