While Russia swiftly seized control of Georgia, Iran is encroaching on Armenia, seeking to exploit its molybdenum and other resources for the production of weapons and the development of its nuclear program.
The West is rapidly losing its foothold in the Caucasus due to the shortsighted and often ignorant policies of certain EU members. First, the West lost in Georgia’s elections, where victory went to the pro-Russian Bidzina Ivanishvili.
According to the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, France played an active role in the recent Georgian elections, specifically through its diplomatic support and strategic influence on Georgian politics.
In the lead-up to the elections, French officials publicly endorsed pro-European candidate Salome Zourabichvili.
French President Emmanuel Macron voiced concern over Georgia’s political trajectory and urged adherence to European values. Russian propaganda interpreted these actions as an attempt to influence the elections, given that Zourabichvili is a French-born politician and a former French diplomat.
The Russians also used attempts by several Western politicians to push Georgia to open «a second front against Russia» to help Ukraine, promising to support Georgia militarily and financially.
Simultaneously, Iran is strengthening its position, increasingly drawing Armenia into its sphere of influence. Yerevan appears to be playing a peculiar game—loudly proclaiming a break from its longtime ally Russia, yet hesitating to take actions such as closing Russian bases on its territory. In the West, some believe these declarations despite, for instance, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan’s participation in the BRICS summit in Russia in late October.
Meanwhile, Armenian media openly and enthusiastically report on the growing closeness with Iran—a relationship that, even previously, resembled that of a metropolis and colony more than a true partnership.
However, this seems to escape the notice of Western analysts, though it should be a cause for concern.
For example, Armenia’s National Security Council actively engages with Iranian experts: On November 5th, Armen Grigoryan, Secretary of Armenia’s National Security Council, met with experts from Iranian analytical centers. The discussions focused on Armenia-Iran cooperation and new perspectives, emphasizing the importance of boosting economic ties.
Yerevan understands that Iran is a major enemy of the West. Armenian officials, while publicly announcing their affinity to the EU and the US, openly state in the local media that they take Iran’s side in the conflict.
“Armenia-West cooperation and ongoing processes cannot be used against third countries, particularly Iran,” Armenian experts stated during the joint summit “Armenia-Iran: Cooperation and Prospects,” which took place this week in the Armenian city of Kapan. The event brought together experts from Armenian and Iranian analytical and research centers.
Speaking with *Armenpress*, Gor Tsarukyan, Director of the Public Relations and Information Center in the Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia, noted: “The main goal is to present Armenia’s official position on the vision for Armenia-Iran relations to influential Iranian opinion leaders, experts, academics, and major media agencies…
“We transparently presented the Armenia-West cooperation, including in meetings with high-ranking officials, and emphasised that we cannot use these processes against third countries, particularly Iran”.
During the conference in Kapan, Iranian experts visited the construction site of the North-South road, which will connect Armenia and Iran, and toured the Kapan Copper-Molybdenum Plant.
“Our Iranian partners observed the high standards of mining operations, the advanced safety standards, and the technological norms and regulations implemented in this sector,” said Tsarukyan. Molybdenum is a strategic resource essential for the production of modern weaponry.
All of the aforementioned evidence further confirms Iran’s strategy of using Armenia as a proxy.
Armenia has long been an important element in Iran’s strategic policy, serving as a route for laundering money under sanctions and obtaining prohibited materials for its nuclear program.
In 2023, Israel’s Alma Institute published a report detailing how Armenia functions as a transit point in Iran’s air corridor to Syria and Lebanon.
Yerevan Airport was reportedly used to transport weapons, equipment, and operatives to Aleppo and Damascus airports in Syria, and then by land to Lebanon. These flights were operated by Armenian Flight Travel LLC, a company established in 2018 as a front for Iran’s Mahan Air, which is sanctioned by the U.S.
Additionally, according to Alma, the primary Iranian company running flights from Tehran to Yerevan is Iran Air Tour, a subsidiary of Iran Air, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), designated a terrorist organisation by the U.S.
Three billion dollars is the sum that Iran allocated in September for “economic” cooperation with Armenia.
“Iran has planned cooperation with Armenia amounting to approximately $3 billion, and we are confident that we will move in that direction. We are determined to utilize all available potential,” stated Mehdi Sobhani, the Iranian ambassador to Yerevan, affirming Iran’s ongoing support for Armenia. This figure is 4.5 times the 2023 trade volume between Iran and Armenia, raising questions about how such a sum would be utilized.
A portion of this may include a recent secret arms deal worth half a billion dollars between Iran and Armenia. According to Iran International, Tehran will supply Yerevan with drones (Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, Mohajer) and air defense missile systems (3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, Arman). Farzin Nadimi, an arms expert at the Washington Institute, commented that a deal of this magnitude is significant for the Caucasus region, noting, “Iran has sold Armenia drones [before], and other arms, but nothing at this scale,” as reported by Iran International.
In September 2024, Iran’s state news agency Mehr announced the opening of the “Iran Trade Center” in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan. This center will serve as Iran’s “gateway to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)”—an economic bloc under Russian influence, which includes Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan. The Iran Trade Center in Yerevan spans over 18,000 square meters and features an exhibition hall with 107 stands.
These developments should be concerning for the West. However, some Western politicians seem to pursue their own agendas; for example, France is supplying Armenia with weapons, aiming to strengthen its influence over Armenia and hoping to disrupt the pending peace agreements between Baku and Yerevan.
There is hope that the return of Donald Trump to power in the U.S., whose stance on Iran is sharply different from Biden’s policy, will push shortsighted European politicians to abandon risky strategies in the South Caucasus.
