In light of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S., European Union leaders gathered in Budapest on Thursday to assess their capacity to continue military support for Ukraine independently, should the United States withdraw or reduce its involvement.
Citing sources, Bloomberg reported that the EU leaders discussed the prospect of bolstering their financial and military assistance to Ukraine if U.S. support were to wane under the new administration.
EU Leaders Weigh Financial and Military Commitment
The core of the EU’s discussions revolved around whether the bloc could shoulder the financial responsibilities necessary to sustain Ukraine’s defence. Many officials expressed concerns that Trump’s administration might shift the financial burden onto Europe, necessitating a substantial reallocation of EU resources. The dialogue highlighted a collective anxiety regarding Europe’s preparedness to support Ukraine unilaterally, while avoiding significant changes in the EU’s current policy direction.
A European official involved in the discussions clarified that there were no immediate plans for a radical policy shift. However, the EU’s need for contingency plans, given Trump’s potential stance on Ukraine, was widely acknowledged.
Zelensky Calls for Continued Support
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took part in the talks, urging European leaders to maintain the flow of arms and resources to Ukraine. Zelensky cautioned against any discourse around ceasefire agreements or concessions that could weaken Ukraine’s defensive stance. Emphasising the importance of sustained Western backing, he stated that support from allies was essential for Ukraine’s resilience.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, speaking on the second day of the EU summit, reiterated this sentiment, emphasising that any current prospect of peace stemmed from Ukraine’s courage and the West’s united support.
“If peace seems within reach today, it’s because Ukraine has shown remarkable bravery and Western allies have stood firm,” Meloni noted. “The developments over the coming weeks will be critical.”
Strategic Divisions Among EU Leaders
While most EU leaders seemed aligned on the need for ongoing support to Ukraine, divisions emerged on how swiftly Europe should act. Some officials advocated for waiting until Trump’s inauguration in January to gain a clearer understanding of his stance. Conversely, others argued that the EU could not afford to wait and should start preparing for various scenarios immediately. This split reflects Europe’s uncertainty and the sense of urgency to avoid any abrupt changes that could destabilise the region.
Sources within the European Commission indicated that officials are preparing contingency plans that outline potential responses if U.S. support were to diminish. An EU diplomat noted that Trump’s initial conversations with European leaders included references to his approach toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting the new U.S. administration may pursue a re-evaluation of America’s role in the conflict.
Trump’s Stance on Russia and Ukraine
One source familiar with Trump’s preliminary discussions with EU leaders indicated that Trump acknowledged he could not pressure Ukraine into concessions without offering substantial alternatives. This statement has left some EU officials cautiously optimistic, though questions about the depth of U.S. support remain.
In a contrasting perspective, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expressed scepticism over Europe’s ability to support Ukraine’s military campaign alone. In a radio interview on Friday, Orbán described the conflict as a “lost war” and asserted that Europe could not independently fund it if the U.S. chose to step back. He suggested that Trump’s administration would likely curtail American involvement, positioning Europe in a more self-reliant role.
Estonia’s Warning on EU’s Future
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal took a different stance, emphasising that the EU’s continued support for Ukraine would shape the bloc’s future. Michal argued that Europe must increase its commitment to defend Ukraine and safeguard its own interests following Trump’s electoral win. His remarks underscore the stakes of the EU’s support for Ukraine, suggesting that the bloc’s unity and credibility depend on its ability to act decisively in response to the shifting political landscape.
The Budapest summit thus highlighted Europe’s strategic dilemma: the necessity of preparing to support Ukraine independently, juxtaposed with varying opinions on the best approach. As the European Commission formulates proposals for potential scenarios, the EU faces a series of pressing challenges regarding its military capabilities, budget allocations, and internal cohesion.
