Home SECURITY & DEFENCE ISW: Putin Rejects Negotiations, Insists on Ukraine’s Surrender for Ceasefire

ISW: Putin Rejects Negotiations, Insists on Ukraine’s Surrender for Ceasefire

by EUToday Correspondents
ISW: Putin Rejects Negotiations, Insists on Ukraine's Surrender for Ceasefire

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlight that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has unequivocally rejected any meaningful negotiations for a ceasefire, instead openly demanding Ukraine’s capitulation.

Putin has outright dismissed Russia’s participation in any substantial negotiations concerning a ceasefire agreement, demanding the irreversible “demilitarisation” of Ukraine as a prerequisite for a ceasefire. Analysts note that, in doing so, Putin is essentially requiring Ukraine to surrender for a cessation of hostilities.

Putin commented on the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine through negotiations at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 4th July. Instead of offering his usual feigned interest in such negotiations, he explicitly rejected any negotiation process regarding a ceasefire.

The Kremlin ruler has repeatedly portrayed the West as a potential negotiating partner for a ceasefire agreement to prompt Western concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty. However, Putin specifically dismissed all intermediary parties in brokering an agreement between Ukraine and Russia. He also dismissed the Verkhovna Rada as a possible negotiating partner, despite previously asserting that it was the only legitimate Ukrainian body with which Russia could negotiate.

Experts summarise: “Putin has now deemed all Ukrainian authorities as illegitimate or unsuitable for negotiations and has rejected the idea of third-party involvement in talks, effectively ruling out any real process of full-fledged negotiations for a ceasefire agreement. Instead, he has emphasised his demand for Ukraine to cease fire.”

Additionally, Putin has made “demilitarisation” of Ukraine a primary condition for a ceasefire agreement. ISW continues to assess that Russia would use a respite to rebuild and expand its forces and further mobilise its defence-industrial base for future aggression aimed at destroying the Ukrainian state.

According to analysts, Putin’s refusal of any ceasefire agreement without Ukraine’s capitulation further illustrates his confidence that Russia can achieve victory through continued gradual advances in Ukraine. Essentially, he is betting on a war of attrition without Western support for Ukraine.

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