On 20 October, Moldova held both a presidential election and a referendum on European integration, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s political and geopolitical trajectory. The results, although preliminary, have sparked intense discussion both domestically and internationally, particularly concerning Russia’s role in the elections and referendum. Moldovan authorities claim that Russia invested over €100 million in efforts to disrupt the democratic process, reflecting Moscow’s ongoing interest in Moldova’s political alignment.
The referendum on European integration saw a nearly even split among voters, with around 50% in favour and 50% against, including votes from Moldovans living abroad. At the same time, the first round of the presidential election resulted in a decisive lead for the incumbent, Maia Sandu, who garnered over 42% of the vote, nearly 16% more than her closest rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, the former Prosecutor General.
As the country moves towards the second round of the presidential election, scheduled for 3 November, the results of both the election and referendum present significant challenges for Moldova’s political future, its European aspirations, and its relations with Russia.
The Presidential Race: Maia Sandu’s Narrow Lead
The presidential election has been framed as a contest between pro-European and pro-Russian forces. Maia Sandu, representing the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), is seen as the leader who has driven Moldova towards European integration, a stance she built her campaign around. Sandu’s policies focus on judicial reform, anti-corruption measures, and a closer relationship with the European Union (EU). Her platform resonates strongly with urban voters and the Moldovan diaspora, who see EU integration as a path to economic stability and institutional reform.
Alexandr Stoianoglo, on the other hand, appeals to more conservative and rural voters, many of whom are sceptical of EU integration. Stoianoglo, backed by the Socialist Party, positioned himself as a candidate of change, promoting his background as a prosecutor and his stance on law and order. However, his ties to the Kremlin and the Socialist Party have led to concerns about Moldova’s potential return to a pro-Russian orientation under his leadership.
Renato Usatîi, the former mayor of Bălți and leader of the Our Party, finished third with approximately 14% of the vote, with his support concentrated in Moldova’s north. The support for Usatîi will likely play a key role in the second round, as voters from his bloc are expected to decide between Sandu and Stoianoglo. However, as political analysts from Moldova suggest, Usatîi’s electorate is fluid, and many of his supporters are likely to shift their allegiance based on campaign developments in the coming weeks.
Despite Sandu’s strong showing in the first round, experts warn that her lead may not be enough to secure a comfortable victory in the second round. Analyst Vladislav Kulminski, Executive Director of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives and former Deputy Prime Minister, notes that “a 16% lead does not guarantee Sandu’s victory in the second round,” emphasising that much will depend on how voters from smaller parties realign in the final stage of the election.
The Referendum: A Divided Electorate on European Integration
Simultaneously, Moldovans were asked to vote in a referendum on whether the country should pursue a course of European integration, by enshrining the goal of EU membership in the constitution. The results of the referendum, which saw a near 50-50 split, surprised many observers, especially given the significant pro-European rhetoric in recent years. Initially, public opinion polls had indicated a larger margin in favour of EU integration, with expectations of around 60% of voters supporting the constitutional amendment.
However, the narrow result has raised questions about the depth of support for EU integration within Moldova, especially among voters in rural areas and regions like Gagauzia, where scepticism towards European integration remains high. Anatol Țăranu, a Moldovan political analyst and expert on Transnistrian conflict resolution, suggests that the referendum reflects “a significant polarisation within Moldovan society,” and points to Russia’s substantial influence in shaping public opinion. Russian media and political actors have long worked to present EU integration as a threat to Moldova’s sovereignty and traditional values, often framing the EU as a force that would impose unwanted social reforms on the country.
Țăranu argues that the result of the referendum demonstrates that Moldova is “still deeply divided between pro-European and pro-Russian blocs.” This division is also evident in the voting patterns of Moldovans abroad, who overwhelmingly supported EU integration, while those residing within Moldova were more sceptical. “The diaspora played a decisive role in tipping the balance in favour of the ‘yes’ vote,” Țăranu adds, underlining the critical importance of Moldovans living abroad in shaping the country’s political future.
Russian Interference: A Clear Strategy to Disrupt
Russian involvement in Moldova’s elections and referendum is a well-documented aspect of the country’s political landscape. Moldovan authorities have alleged that Russia spent around €100 million to undermine the electoral process, with strategies ranging from disinformation campaigns to the buying of votes. Kulminski explains that Russia’s main objective is to stop Moldova’s pro-European trajectory, destabilise the political environment, and bring pro-Russian politicians back into power.
In addition, Russia has worked to exploit Moldova’s societal divisions, using disinformation campaigns to frame Sandu and her pro-European agenda as synonymous with conflict and instability, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine. Russian propaganda has been effective in many parts of Moldova, where economic concerns and nostalgia for the Soviet era remain strong. For instance, Gagauzia, an autonomous region in the south, overwhelmingly voted against EU integration, reflecting a broader scepticism towards Western institutions in rural and traditionally conservative areas.
As Kulminski notes, Russian interference in Moldova’s political process is not new, but the scale and sophistication of Moscow’s efforts have increased in recent years. This election and referendum were no exception, with Russian-backed networks allegedly buying votes in favour of candidates and policies aligned with Moscow’s interests. “The scale of vote-buying was unprecedented in Moldova,” Kulminski emphasised, adding that these efforts were particularly concentrated in rural areas, where economic hardship makes voters more susceptible to such tactics.
Implications for Parliamentary Elections
The results of the referendum and presidential election will likely have a profound impact on Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for summer 2025. Moldova’s parliamentary system gives the legislature significant power over the country’s political direction, and the fragmented nature of the current political landscape suggests that coalition-building will be essential in forming the next government.
Maia Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party currently holds a majority in parliament, but the narrow result in the referendum raises concerns about the party’s ability to maintain its dominance. Many analysts view the presidential election and referendum as a prelude to the parliamentary contest, where the battle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces will be even more fiercely contested. Vladislav Kulminski warns that “the results of these elections will shape Moldova’s political trajectory for the next decade,” and that pro-European forces must consolidate if they are to prevent a resurgence of pro-Russian influence in parliament.
Given Moldova’s parliamentary system, even a victory for Maia Sandu in the presidential election may not be enough to secure the country’s European future. If the Socialists and their allies manage to gain ground in the parliamentary elections, they could limit the scope of Sandu’s reforms and block further efforts towards EU integration.
The Path Forward for Sandu and Moldova
For Maia Sandu, the path to re-election is not guaranteed. Despite her strong performance in the first round, experts agree that the second round will be closely fought. Anatol Țăranu notes that the main challenge for Sandu will be to “mobilise the pro-European electorate and convince centrist voters who are currently undecided.” The next two weeks will be crucial, as both candidates work to win over voters who supported other candidates in the first round, particularly those who backed Renato Usatîi.
At the same time, Sandu must contend with the broader implications of the referendum. Although the pro-European camp narrowly won, the close result reflects a deep divide in Moldovan society that will need to be addressed if the country is to move forward on its path towards EU membership. As Kulminski suggests, “Moldova is at a crossroads,” and the decisions made in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the country continues to align with the West or falls back into Russia’s sphere of influence.
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