In an interview with The Financial Times, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the possibility of mutual agreement between Ukraine and Russia to cease strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. This, he suggests, could serve as a preliminary move towards ending active combat operations on the Russian-Ukrainian front, signalling Russia’s potential readiness to end the war it initiated in February 2022. However, Zelensky also indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be waiting for the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections before making any decisions regarding the continuation of hostilities.
Talks surrounding the cessation of attacks on energy facilities have reportedly been ongoing. Earlier reports, including from The Washington Post, highlighted negotiations mediated by Qatar, where both Ukrainian and Russian delegations discussed the issue. However, these talks allegedly broke down following a Ukrainian military offensive in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. While official confirmation of these negotiations remains elusive, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov noted that secret talks, primarily focused on humanitarian matters, were held between the two countries in 2022. He did not rule out the possibility of ongoing humanitarian discussions that might now include energy infrastructure.
From Ukraine’s perspective, ceasing attacks on energy infrastructure would be a significant step, especially as the harsh winter approaches. Russian strikes have devastated Ukraine’s energy grid, leading to blackouts, reduced economic capacity, and pushing more civilians to seek refuge abroad. For Zelensky, halting these strikes is crucial to maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty and ensuring that the country can continue to defend itself. The attacks on energy infrastructure weaken the Ukrainian economy, which plays a vital role in supporting the war effort against Russian aggression.
Conversely, Putin’s objectives appear more strategic. For the Russian leader, weakening Ukraine and forcing it into capitulation remains a priority. The ongoing war, particularly the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure, serves Moscow’s broader goal of destabilising Ukraine, making it more vulnerable to Russian advances and potentially easier to annex or influence. The idea of a ceasefire on energy strikes may not align with Russia’s long-term objectives, which have consistently been geared towards overpowering Ukraine and eventually absorbing parts of its territory.
A critical question arises around the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. While Ukraine has launched attacks on Russian facilities, these strikes have not significantly undermined Russia’s economy or military capacity. Therefore, for Putin, the primary concern may not be preventing Ukrainian strikes but rather continuing to degrade Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The winter months offer Russia a strategic advantage, as further disruption to Ukrainian power supplies could deepen the country’s humanitarian and economic crises.
It is evident that Zelensky’s motivations are clear: securing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and maintaining the country’s capacity to resist Russian aggression. However, Putin faces a different calculation. He must weigh the benefits of preventing Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure against his overarching aim of weakening and potentially dismantling the Ukrainian state. So far, Ukrainian strikes have not caused significant damage to Russia’s economy or military, and the Russian offensive continues unabated.
The idea that Putin would engage in ceasefire talks to demonstrate a willingness for peace is seen by many as naïve. Russia’s leadership, historically, has been driven by power and strength, rather than concerns over international reputation or peace-building. Despite global condemnation, Putin has maintained strong ties with nations like China and India, both of whom continue to engage with Russia diplomatically and economically. For Putin, peace would likely equate to Ukraine’s capitulation rather than any negotiated settlement.
In the broader geopolitical landscape, Russia’s relationships with non-Western powers remain strong. Leaders from the global South, particularly those from BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), continue to interact with Putin, further reducing any incentive for Moscow to make concessions in its war with Ukraine. In this context, the idea of Russia making the “first move” towards peace appears to be far from Putin’s agenda.
Ultimately, the likelihood of a mutual agreement to halt strikes on energy infrastructure depends on how seriously both sides perceive the damage caused by such attacks. For Ukraine, the impact is severe and immediate, affecting civilian life and the country’s economic viability. For Russia, however, Ukrainian strikes have so far caused minimal disruption. Putin’s interests lie in securing Russia’s geopolitical goals, and there is little evidence to suggest he views the cessation of hostilities, particularly on energy infrastructure, as a priority.
