OPEC+ is poised to agree an increase in oil production of more than half a million barrels per day next month, as the cartel seeks to reassure markets rattled by ongoing fears over supply disruption from Russia.
Two officials from the oil-producing group told Reuters on Sunday that a boost of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September had been agreed “in principle” following days of internal deliberations. A formal decision is expected today, with the increase marking the latest step in OPEC+’s strategy to fully unwind the steep output cuts it imposed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The move comes amid fresh geopolitical pressure, particularly from the United States, as President Donald Trump’s administration pushes for a broad-based Western front to isolate Russia economically in the hopes of forcing Moscow to the negotiating table over Ukraine.
But tensions between Washington and key strategic partner India have flared, with New Delhi making clear it will continue purchasing discounted Russian oil despite U.S. threats of economic penalties.
Two senior Indian officials told Reuters on Saturday that India would not bow to American pressure, citing energy security and national interest as overriding factors. “We will continue to diversify our supply sources, but Russian oil remains a vital part of that mix,” one official said. Both sources requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
The oil market, already navigating a fragile balance between global demand recovery and restricted supply, is bracing for further volatility. Although OPEC+ has gradually eased its output curbs, the group has remained cautious in its pace, citing uncertainty over Chinese demand, Western interest rates, and unpredictable developments on the Russian front.
Western sanctions have already curtailed a significant portion of Russian oil exports, yet Moscow continues to ship large volumes to Asia, particularly India and China, often at steep discounts. India has emerged as the second-largest buyer of Russian crude, having sharply ramped up purchases in the past two years—a shift that has drawn the ire of Washington.
President Trump, who returned to office earlier this year, has sharpened the tone with New Delhi in recent weeks. In a post on Truth Social last month, Mr Trump warned that India would face “serious consequences” for continuing its arms and energy ties with Russia, accusing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of “undermining efforts to bring peace to Europe.”
Washington followed up with a new 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports to the United States, a move seen by many in Delhi as retaliatory. On Friday, speaking to reporters before departing for a campaign event, Mr Trump claimed he had been informed India would stop buying Russian oil. “That’s what I’ve heard. They’re making the right choice,” he said.
However, Indian officials were quick to pour cold water on that claim. “There has been no change in our policy. Our dealings with Russia are consistent with our national interest and energy needs,” one source said, suggesting that the White House may have misinterpreted internal discussions or preliminary trade talks.
Privately, Indian diplomats express frustration at what they view as Washington’s double standards—pointing to the continued purchase of Russian uranium by U.S. utilities, and the leniency shown to certain European countries whose own energy ties with Russia remain only partially severed.
Oil analysts say today’s expected decision by OPEC+ is unlikely to calm all market nerves but may provide short-term stability. “An increase of around 548,000 barrels per day will help address tightness, especially ahead of peak autumn demand in the Northern Hemisphere,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects. “But a lot depends on Russia’s actual export volumes, which are increasingly opaque.”
OPEC+ has faced its own internal tensions, with Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE keen to avoid excessive tightening that could drive up prices and stoke inflation in key customer economies. Others, like Iran and Venezuela, are pushing to maximise output as sanctions relief talks sputter.
Meanwhile, Russia remains a wildcard. Although Western sanctions have hurt its revenues, Moscow has proven resilient, pivoting to alternative markets and adopting shadow fleet logistics to sustain exports. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week that Russia would “continue to supply willing partners on mutually beneficial terms.”
As geopolitical manoeuvres continue behind the scenes, the global oil landscape is increasingly defined by what one analyst called “fragmented pragmatism”: regional powers prioritising self-interest even as Washington attempts to restore Cold War-era discipline among its allies.
India, for its part, appears unshaken. In a recent energy security forum in Delhi, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri remarked pointedly, “We are the world’s third-largest energy consumer. No one can dictate whom we buy from or at what price. We will continue to act in our own interest.”
For now, traders and policymakers alike will be watching Vienna closely for today’s OPEC+ announcement. But whatever the cartel decides, it is becoming increasingly clear that the global energy order is undergoing a slow, messy, and highly politicised realignment.
