Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a key Putin ally, struck an optimistic tone, viewing Trump’s return as a chance to strengthen his influence across a politically fractured Europe. Shortly after Trump’s victory announcement, Orbán, a staunch nationalist, celebrated on social media, hailing it as “a much-needed victory for the world.”
Orbán’s close ties with Trump, which were strengthened during the latter’s previous presidency, offer a platform from which the Hungarian leader hopes to enhance his standing both domestically and on the European stage. He envisions himself as a “mediator” between a future Trump-led United States and a Europe increasingly divided on key issues, including support for Ukraine and NATO’s role in global security.
A Summit Centre Stage in Budapest
At the European Political Community summit in Budapest, Orbán found himself in the spotlight. Hosting European leaders, many of whom are uneasy about Trump’s foreign policy stances, Orbán used the platform to underline his aspirations for a stronger partnership with the U.S., especially in the context of resolving the Ukraine conflict.
Trump, whom Orbán has lauded as a “man of peace,” is seen by the Hungarian leader as a potential quick-fix negotiator in the Russia-Ukraine war. The two spoke by phone prior to the summit, with Orbán later hinting at ambitious “plans for the future.”
Trump’s rhetoric about brokering peace, however, has raised concerns among some European Union leaders. Orbán’s July visit to both Moscow and Kyiv, conducted independently of EU and NATO channels, drew criticism within the bloc, where there is scepticism about his motivations. Yet, with Trump’s re-emergence, Orbán hopes to reduce his own isolation within the EU by playing a “Trump whisperer” role, as described by Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group.
The EU’s Reluctance and Trade Tensions
Though Orbán aims to position himself as a broker for U.S.-EU relations, the EU remains hesitant to endorse him in any leadership capacity regarding security or Ukraine. Concerns linger over Orbán’s ties to Russia, his opposition to military aid for Ukraine, and his deviation from EU policies on democracy and human rights.
Trump’s proposed economic policies could also complicate matters. The former U.S. President has suggested implementing a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on goods from China. Such measures would likely disrupt European economies, including Hungary’s. With an automotive sector that accounted for 12.3% of Hungary’s manufacturing jobs in 2021, the prospect of tariffs has left industry experts wary. Hungarian economist Peter Virovacz from ING noted that a resurgence of “Trump 2.0” could introduce “serious headaches” for Hungary’s industrial output, which is already facing challenges.
Domestic Implications for Orbán
Orbán’s renewed association with Trump could offer a degree of insulation against pressure from the U.S. regarding his domestic policies, which have been subject to international scrutiny. Relations between Hungary and the U.S. have cooled under the administration of Joe Biden, primarily due to Orbán’s connections with Moscow and his hesitancy to approve Sweden’s NATO membership. A Trump presidency might ease such pressures, providing Orbán with greater latitude ahead of Hungary’s 2026 national elections. Some analysts suggest this could embolden Orbán in areas where his policies diverge sharply from EU norms, particularly in media freedom and LGBTQ rights.
However, the gamble is not without risks. U.S. Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman highlighted the stakes at a recent press briefing, remarking that Orbán was effectively gambling with the U.S.-Hungary relationship through his enthusiastic endorsement of Trump. Ambassador Pressman noted that Orbán’s backing of Trump, likened to a high-stakes “card game,” could impact Budapest’s diplomatic standing with Washington depending on Trump’s ultimate influence.
Zelenskyy’s Omitted Speech
Further controversy unfolded during the summit as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address was conspicuously absent from the official broadcast, sparking backlash from Kyiv. Scheduled to speak following Orbán and ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron, Zelenskyy’s speech was omitted, with organisers claiming it was “not public.” Ukrainian officials have refuted this explanation, asserting that no request was made to withhold the broadcast, with representatives stating that presidential speeches are generally considered public by default if event formats allow.
This episode further strains relations between Hungary and Ukraine, with Orbán’s stance on the war remaining a point of contention. Hungarian officials have repeatedly questioned the EU’s approach to Ukraine, with Orbán calling for a “rethinking” of Europe’s position in light of a Trump-led U.S. administration. His stance diverges sharply from the broader EU perspective, which largely supports ongoing assistance for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Orbán’s Calculated Gamble
Having governed Hungary since 2010, Orbán is no stranger to political gambles. Facing domestic challenges, including a slowing economy and a growing opposition, his alignment with Trump might offer him a tactical advantage at home. Trump’s victory could lift political pressure on Hungary from Washington, potentially allowing Orbán more freedom in pushing his agenda ahead of Hungary’s 2026 elections.
For now, Orbán appears willing to leverage his status as a leading figure on Europe’s nationalist right. At a recent European Parliament visit, he quipped, “We will open several bottles of champagne if Trump is back,” signalling his anticipation of a return to a favourable U.S.-Hungarian partnership. Whether this gamble yields dividends or isolates Hungary further within Europe remains uncertain.
In aligning himself with Trump, Orbán seeks to reshape Hungary’s role in the EU and on the global stage, striving to balance his nationalist agenda with the demands of a complex international landscape. However, Trump’s return could bring both opportunities and challenges, as Orbán’s vision of a “golden age” with America may be tempered by the economic realities of an increasingly protectionist U.S.
Image: Viktor Orbán/Facebook
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