This week’s BRICS summit, taking place in Kazan, Russia, from 22 to 24 October 2024, was billed by the Kremlin as one of the most significant foreign policy events in Russia’s recent history.
With over 20 heads of state invited, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin had hoped to showcase his country’s continued relevance on the global stage, despite increasing international isolation due to the war in Ukraine and the severe economic sanctions imposed by the West.
However, the event has been marred by notable absences, reflecting the growing difficulties Putin faces in maintaining global alliances.
The BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has expanded in recent years to include new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has also been invited, with the group positioning itself as an alternative power bloc to the Western-led G7, representing a significant portion of the world’s population and economy. Yet, despite this broad representation, Putin’s plans for a high-profile summit have faced several setbacks, particularly in terms of attendance from key global leaders.
One of the most significant absences is that of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Despite being invited and heavily courted by the Kremlin, the Saudi leader chose not to attend the summit. This decision reflects the growing distance between Riyadh and Moscow, particularly after Saudi Arabia announced its intention to increase oil production starting in December 2024. This move is expected to drive down global oil prices, which would be a serious blow to Russia’s already strained economy, as the country heavily relies on oil exports for revenue. Bin Salman’s absence underscores the Kingdom’s strategic pivot away from Russia and towards maintaining stable relations with both the West and other major oil producers.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is another high-profile absentee. Lula had initially planned to attend but cancelled last-minute, citing a minor injury that prevented him from making the long journey to Russia. While the official explanation was that he had sustained a head injury, many analysts see this as a diplomatic excuse to avoid appearing at an event that could damage Brazil’s relations with Western countries. Lula’s decision to skip the summit came shortly after Putin announced that he would not attend the G20 summit in Brazil later this year due to concerns over his legal status stemming from an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant. The optics of Lula’s absence, following Putin’s withdrawal from the G20, are telling. It reflects Brazil’s careful balancing act between maintaining strong ties with the West and avoiding deeper entanglement with Russia.
These absences have dealt a significant blow to the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia remains a central player in global affairs. Chris Weafer, a partner at Macro-Advisory, commented that the message the Kremlin wanted to send was one of defiance: “The clear message is that attempts to isolate Russia have failed.” However, with the absence of key figures like Mohammed bin Salman and Lula, Putin’s attempt to project strength has been undermined, casting a shadow over the summit.
China’s President Xi Jinping, while attending the summit, has also signalled limits to Beijing’s support for Moscow. Just days before the event, China announced new export controls on technologies that could have military applications, including components used in drones. This move, widely seen as a concession to US pressure, suggests that while China continues to engage diplomatically with Russia, it is unwilling to risk its broader economic interests by openly violating Western sanctions. Xi’s attendance, therefore, comes with caveats, as China navigates its own complex relationship with both Russia and the West.
The summit’s agenda includes discussions on reducing reliance on the US dollar in global trade—an issue of particular interest to Russia, given the impact of Western sanctions on its economy. Putin is keen to push for an alternative BRICS payment system that would bypass the dollar, euro, and other G7 currencies, thus weakening the West’s ability to impose financial restrictions on Russia. However, this ambition faces significant hurdles within BRICS itself.
The internal dynamics of the BRICS group are far from harmonious. India and China, two of the bloc’s most influential members, have a history of political and territorial disputes, which complicates any effort to establish deeper economic or strategic cooperation. As Jim O’Neill, the economist who coined the term “BRIC,” pointed out, “If China and India were really serious, BRICS would have enormous influence. But trying to get them to really co-operate on economic things is a never-ending challenge.” This rivalry, combined with tensions between newer members such as Egypt and Ethiopia, further complicates any prospects of BRICS presenting a united front on issues like creating an alternative currency system.
In addition, despite Russia’s efforts to portray BRICS as a cohesive bloc representing the “global majority,” the interests of individual member states vary significantly. India, for instance, has continued to cultivate strong economic and political ties with the West, while South Africa, another core BRICS member, has similarly maintained a delicate balance between its relationships with both Western countries and Russia. The divergence in national priorities makes it difficult for BRICS to act as a unified counterweight to the G7.
While the summit has provided Putin with a platform to show that Russia is not completely isolated, the absence of key leaders and the internal divisions within BRICS raise questions about the effectiveness of the event. Putin’s attempt to project unity and strength has been undermined by the absence of some of his most important allies, as well as the limitations of what BRICS can realistically achieve in the face of global economic and political complexities.
Read also:
Kazakhstan Declines BRICS Membership, Prioritises UN Engagement