The Washington D.C. based Institute for the Study Of War (ISW) has suggested that “Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favour of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast.”
It further suggests that Putin’s beleaguered forces have depleted their combat-ready reserves after just three months of fighting against a numerically inferior force.
Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry
However, ISW reports that Russian forces made only “minor territorial advances toward Severodonetsk and are likely committing to a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Luhansk Oblast in place of the more ambitious encirclements that might have given them control over all or most of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.”
Furthermore, on Telegram Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces engaged in battles in settlements approximately 4 km northeast and 5 km southwest of Severodonetsk on May 15th.
Haidai said that the Russian command likely scaled back its objective of reaching the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders to focus on Luhansk Oblast. Haidai said that the Russians are committing additional forces to their northern and southern drives toward Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast. He added that the Russian command also continued its efforts to seize the Lysychansk-Bahmut highway to surround Ukrainian units in Rubizhne, Severodonentsk, and Lysychansk, all in Luhansk Oblast.
Commentary on pro-Russian Telegram channels and observed ground offensives north-east of Popasna suggest that Russian forces will try to advance to Lysychansk via the T1303 highway.[16] Failed Russian attempts to cross Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna likely further undermined Russian large-scale encirclement efforts.
ISW: https://www.understandingwar.o…
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