The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, a project with far-reaching geopolitical and economic implications, has resurfaced after years of dormancy.
Originally conceived in the early 2010s, the pipeline aimed to transport Qatari natural gas through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to European markets. However, the intensification of the Syrian conflict in 2015 led to its suspension.
Now, as Europe intensifies efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, the pipeline is once again under consideration, reflecting the shifting priorities in global energy diplomacy.
Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, which previously accounted for over 40% of its imports, exposed the continent to considerable geopolitical risks, particularly during the Ukraine conflict. The subsequent disruption to Russian energy supplies forced the European Union to diversify its sources, leading to increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United States, as well as pipeline gas from Norway and Azerbaijan. While these measures have bolstered energy security, an overland route to transport Qatari gas to Europe could offer further stability and cost efficiency.
Turkey, positioned at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, has long sought to establish itself as a major energy transit hub. The Qatar-Turkey pipeline aligns with Ankara’s ambitions to enhance its geopolitical influence while fostering economic growth through its energy sector.
For Qatar, the pipeline represents an opportunity to bypass critical maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, which are vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Instead, a direct overland route through Turkey would provide Qatar with more stable access to European markets.
The re-emergence of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline has significant implications for the region. Turkey’s existing energy infrastructure, including the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), already plays a key role in delivering Azeri gas to Europe. The addition of Qatari gas to Turkey’s transit network would strengthen its strategic position, enabling Ankara to attract foreign investments, secure transit revenues, and enhance its leverage in diplomatic engagements with the EU and NATO.
For Qatar, the pipeline offers the potential to diversify its export strategies beyond LNG shipments, which are more costly and dependent on volatile maritime routes. By accessing Europe directly via pipeline, Qatar could solidify its presence in the European energy market while reducing exposure to the risks associated with shipping routes in politically sensitive regions.
In Syria, the pipeline could contribute to the country’s reconstruction by generating transit fees. Years of conflict have left Syria’s infrastructure in ruins, and projects such as the Qatar-Turkey pipeline could provide vital economic benefits. However, realising these opportunities depends on achieving stability in the region and resolving the numerous internal and external disputes that have plagued Syria for over a decade.
The project, while promising, faces substantial challenges. Security concerns in Syria remain one of the most significant obstacles. The proposed route would traverse territories controlled by various factions, including Kurdish groups, Iranian-backed militias, and extremist organisations, making negotiations and security arrangements particularly complex.
Regional rivalries also threaten the viability of the pipeline. Iran, a key player in the Middle East and a rival to Qatar, may oppose the project as it could diminish Tehran’s influence over Syria and reduce its own role as a gas supplier to Europe. Resolving these geopolitical tensions will be essential for the pipeline’s success.
Environmental considerations further complicate the pipeline’s prospects. The European Union has committed to ambitious climate targets, aiming for a transition to renewable energy sources. Critics argue that investing in new natural gas infrastructure could undermine these goals and question whether such projects are compatible with the EU’s broader decarbonisation agenda.
Economic feasibility is another factor that cannot be overlooked. The pipeline would require substantial investment, not only in building the infrastructure but also in ensuring a stable and consistent gas supply to justify the costs. Support from international financial institutions and energy companies will be critical to moving the project forward.
The revival of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline underscores the evolving dynamics of global energy diplomacy. Europe’s efforts to diversify its energy sources reflect a broader strategy to enhance resilience against geopolitical disruptions, particularly those stemming from its reliance on Russian energy. The pipeline, if completed, could significantly reshape energy trade routes, strengthening ties between the Gulf states, Turkey, and Europe while providing a much-needed alternative to existing supply chains.
Turkey’s position as an energy transit hub carries strategic implications that extend beyond economics. By controlling key energy routes, Ankara could use its enhanced influence to secure advantages in negotiations with the EU and NATO. This leverage could also play a role in Turkey’s long-standing pursuit of EU membership, adding another layer of complexity to regional diplomacy.
The pipeline also reflects Qatar’s growing ambition to expand its energy footprint in Europe. As one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, Qatar’s shift towards pipeline gas could position the country as an even more significant player in the global energy market, reducing its dependence on shipping routes and boosting its long-term economic prospects.
Despite the challenges, the Qatar-Turkey pipeline holds the potential to reshape energy dynamics in the region and beyond. Stabilising Syria, addressing regional rivalries, and aligning the project with global climate goals will be critical to its success. If realised, the pipeline could serve as a cornerstone of Middle Eastern and European energy cooperation, marking a significant shift in the geopolitical calculus of the region.
Main Image: By Matthew Smith @ Flickr – https://www.flickr.com/photos/96701339@N04/39650222120/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=83823860
