On December 16, Moldova officially entered a state of emergency as it braces for a potential energy crisis that could have severe ramifications for the country and the breakaway region of Transnistria. The crisis is rooted in the impending expiration of a critical gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, raising fears of a complete halt in gas supplies to Moldova and its reliance on energy from the separatist enclave.
The Looming Gas Cutoff
At the heart of the crisis is the likely cessation of Russian gas supplies to Moldova, including the Transnistrian region, starting January 1, 2025. The current agreement for Russian gas transit via Ukraine, signed in 2019, will expire at the end of the year. Given the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the prospects of a new deal appear non-existent.
For Moldova, this could mean an immediate energy deficit, as its primary source of electricity—the Moldavskaya GRES power plant, located in Transnistria—relies entirely on Russian gas. The power plant supplies up to 75% of Moldova’s electricity during the winter months. If gas deliveries stop, Moldova faces widespread blackouts, steep energy price hikes, and public discontent, particularly as the winter cold intensifies.
Impact on Transnistria
The implications for Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region, are even more severe. For decades, Russia has supplied gas to Transnistria free of charge, effectively subsidising the region’s economy and maintaining its political and economic dependency. Transnistrian authorities have used this subsidised energy to power local industries, maintain low utility costs, and generate electricity for both the enclave and Moldova.
Should Russia halt these supplies, Transnistria’s already fragile economy could collapse, triggering a humanitarian crisis. Factories reliant on free energy would shut down, public services would falter, and the region’s dependence on external aid would increase. A complete gas cutoff could also destabilise the political order, as Moscow’s influence over the enclave weakens, potentially paving the way for Moldova to reintegrate the territory.
However, reintegration remains a contentious issue. The Moldovan government, led by pro-European President Maia Sandu, is cautious about pursuing forced reintegration due to political risks. Public sentiment does not widely support such measures, and the fallout from a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria could damage the government’s popularity ahead of Moldova’s parliamentary elections in 2025.
A Long-Anticipated Crisis
While the current crisis has been building for months, Moldova appears unprepared to manage its full impact. The government had hoped for a last-minute resolution, believing that some interim agreement between Russia and Ukraine might avert the disruption. However, recent developments, including Moscow’s refusal to secure alternative gas transit routes through the Trans-Balkan pipeline, have dashed those hopes.
Prime Minister Dorin Recean has acknowledged the gravity of the situation, warning citizens of a difficult winter. The government has enacted emergency measures to simplify energy procurement and manage credit flows, but these steps may prove insufficient to avert power outages or mitigate the economic and social fallout.
Russia’s Energy Leverage
Russia’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon is a well-documented strategy, and Moldova has long been a target. The Moldavskaya GRES power plant epitomises Moscow’s leverage. It uses free Russian gas to produce electricity, which it sells to right-bank Moldova at near-market rates. These payments sustain Transnistria’s separatist regime, effectively making Moldova’s energy payments a funding source for its own political adversary.
Moldova has made some progress in diversifying its energy sources. In late 2022, a gas pipeline connecting Moldova to Romania became operational, providing an alternative to Russian gas. However, Moldova’s reliance on electricity from Transnistria remains a critical vulnerability. The Moldovan government has started constructing a direct high-voltage power line from Romania to Chisinau, set to be completed in 2025, which would reduce dependency on Transnistria.
Transnistria’s Dwindling Options
For Transnistria, the stakes are existential. In addition to gas, the Moldavskaya GRES power plant has limited coal reserves, reportedly sufficient to sustain minimal operations for only 50-60 days. The plant’s infrastructure is designed to run on anthracite coal from eastern Ukraine, an increasingly unavailable resource due to the war. Without Russian gas or Ukrainian coal, the region’s primary energy source will collapse.
Transnistria’s economic dependency on Russian subsidies has left it ill-prepared for self-sufficiency. Industries, including metal production and caviar farming, rely on cheap or free energy to remain viable. Public utilities, funded through energy revenues, could grind to a halt. Meanwhile, the separatist regime’s military and administrative functions would struggle to maintain operations.
What Lies Ahead
Despite the high stakes, Moldova’s government is preparing for the worst-case scenario: a complete and prolonged halt in gas supplies. Emergency protocols are being developed to manage power distribution, prioritising essential services. However, the government is also mindful of the potential for public unrest, as rising energy prices and blackouts strain households and businesses.
International support could play a crucial role in helping Moldova navigate the crisis. European partners may step in to provide financial and logistical assistance, particularly if Moldova faces a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria. However, such support would likely come with conditions aimed at accelerating Moldova’s integration into European energy markets.
For Russia, the strategy appears to be twofold. By threatening a complete gas cutoff, Moscow aims to maintain leverage over Transnistria while destabilising Moldova’s pro-European government. A more likely scenario involves a reduction in gas supplies, preserving some dependency without triggering a full collapse in Transnistria.
Outlook for Moldova and Transnistria
The energy crisis highlights Moldova’s ongoing vulnerability to Russian leverage, a challenge faced by many post-Soviet states. Chisinau’s push for energy independence has never been more urgent. However, with parliamentary elections approaching in 2025, the government must balance domestic concerns, rising energy costs, and political stability while managing external pressures.
For Transnistria, the situation is equally precarious. Moscow’s control over the region is facing its toughest test in decades, as energy disruptions could accelerate economic collapse. How both sides manage the coming months will set the tone for regional stability in the year ahead.
