Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, has unexpectedly fallen into the hands of Syrian rebel forces for the first time since 2016. This significant development has caught both Damascus and Moscow off guard, exposing vulnerabilities in President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian conflict.
A Surprising Shift of Power
Rebel forces, initially conducting a limited operation in response to ceasefire violations by Assad’s forces in Idlib province, quickly capitalised on the regime’s apparent weakness. Within days, they seized control of Aleppo, marking a critical blow to government forces and creating logistical challenges for Assad’s administration.
The rapid fall of Aleppo is seen as a reflection of broader systemic issues within the Syrian military, exacerbated by a depleted support network. Rebel commanders reportedly did not anticipate the swift collapse of government defences, underlining the precarious state of Assad’s forces in the region.
Russian Military Response
In the wake of this setback, Russian forces conducted their first airstrikes on Aleppo since 2016, reaffirming Moscow’s commitment to propping up Assad’s regime. Reports suggest that Assad travelled to Moscow immediately after Aleppo’s fall to secure additional military assistance, including new aircraft deployments and an overhaul of Russian military infrastructure in Syria.
Russia’s military support has undergone notable changes following the dissolution of the Wagner Group, a private military contractor that played a critical role in supporting Assad. After the group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was removed from the scene, Russian forces in Syria have been replaced by personnel from the Ministry of Defence. However, analysts note that regular Russian soldiers may lack the operational resolve of Wagner’s mercenaries, which could explain the regime’s recent battlefield setbacks.
Regional Factors and Iranian Support
The situation is further complicated by the diminished role of Hezbollah, Iran’s key ally in Syria. Hezbollah has faced significant losses due to Israeli operations targeting the group’s leadership and resources, particularly amid ongoing tensions in Lebanon. Tehran’s capacity to bolster Assad’s regime is constrained by its own internal challenges and the increasing focus on countering Israeli actions.
The weakening of Hezbollah has opened opportunities for rebel groups to expand their control, particularly in northern Syria. Iran’s stretched resources and the decline of Hezbollah as a regional force leave Assad’s regime in a precarious position, reliant on limited and increasingly fragmented external support.
Turkey’s Strategic Calculations
Turkey, a longstanding supporter of certain Syrian opposition factions, is also playing a pivotal role in the unfolding scenario. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan views the rebels’ advances in Aleppo as a strategic win, simultaneously diminishing Kurdish influence in northern Syria and reinforcing Turkey’s security interests.
For Erdoğan, the weakening of Kurdish militia groups, some of which have links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), aligns with Ankara’s broader goals of countering separatist movements. Furthermore, the shift in Aleppo provides Erdoğan with leverage against Russia and Iran, demonstrating Ankara’s continued relevance in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Broader Implications
The fall of Aleppo highlights significant vulnerabilities in Assad’s regime, which could face a resurgence of opposition forces similar to the height of Syria’s civil war over a decade ago. While Aleppo’s capture is unlikely to immediately topple Assad, it raises questions about the regime’s stability if rebel forces continue their advances.
For Moscow, the developments in Syria present a potential geopolitical embarrassment. Russia’s resources are already heavily committed to the war in Ukraine, limiting its ability to provide the level of military support it once offered in Syria. A prolonged conflict in Syria could strain Russian capabilities further and weaken its standing as a power broker in the region.
The Role of the United States
As the situation evolves, it is anticipated that the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, may re-engage more actively in Syria. Washington’s interests in countering Iranian influence and stabilising the region could lead to a recalibration of its Middle Eastern strategy. However, the extent and nature of U.S. involvement remain uncertain.
A Region in Flux
The fall of Aleppo highlights the fragile status quo in Syria and the broader Middle East, exposing the complex web of regional and global interests at play. It brings into focus the competing agendas of key powers, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the United States, as they manoeuvre to assert their influence. This latest development reaffirms Syria’s role as a focal point for escalating geopolitical rivalries in the region.
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